2013 – Macro Deja Deja Vu

Ever feel like we have been here before? Overwhelmed by the chatter that this time is different and the ‘recovery’ is self-sustaining? Join the crowd (and Goldman). Their MAP indicator – which tracks both absolute (up/down) and relative (beat/miss) moves in macro-economic data – is once again at a level that in the last two years has perfectly marked the tipping point in expectations and absolute macro performance. While the markets (in their infinite wisdom) appear convinced – just as they were in 2007 – perhaps 4 weeks in a row of weakening claims and a gross downward revision of Philly Fed is a glimpse that it really is no different this time.

Chart: Goldman Sachs