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Our Terrible Future–Another Proxy War And the Syrian Meltdown
Tuesday, June 4, 2013 21:20
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by Monica Davis
Syria and Lebanon are taking the brunt of the ongoing crisis in Syria. Millions of refugees are straining the borders, tryng to out run Assad’s weapons of choice, which now include gas and anything he can get his hands on.
The US is keeping F-16s and Patriot missile batteries in Jordan longer, fearing the Syrian civil war may explode all over other countries, including Lebanon, according to BLOOMBERG. One and a half million refugees are straining Lebanon’s resources, as well as regional resources as well.
Relief agencies have registed 300,000 refugees, but boots on the ground relief workers say there are twice that many Syrians and over 30,000 Palestians have headed to Lebanon as well. It has turned the region into a powder keg, particularly straining the relationship between the nation’s three ethnic groups: Suni, Shia and Christian.
A recent State Department report on embassy security deficiencies
The Syrian civil conflict has produced 325,000 registered refugees, and perhaps twice that number of Syrians and 32,000 Palestinians have relocated to Lebanon. Lebanon has a population of around 4 million. This influx of refugees has strained relations among Lebanon’s sectarian communities (Shia, Sunni, and Christian) and between Lebanese and Syrians. U.S. forces have deployed twice in support of Lebanon’s independence, sovereignty, and nationalunity: in 1958 and in 1982–83. U.S. assistance to Lebanese Armed Forces and Lebanese Internal Security Forces helps maintain stability in the current environment.The current embassy is located on an 18-acre, high-security compound in a suburb 20minutes from downtown Beirut. The embassy includes the Departments of State, Defense,Justice, and Commerce (local employees only) and the U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment (USAID). Currently, the embassy has 71 U.S. direct-hire positions, 64 of whichwere filled in March 2013. Twenty to 30 temporary duty personnel routinely supplement thepermanent staff. The embassy has 533 locally employed staff members. READMORE
Over the coming months, many believe that the coming Syrian war is a done deal. The writing is on the wall, the weapons are being positioned and various industrialized nations are reving up their war machines ready to take advantage of the myriad possibilities of a new war.
The US and Israel supply weapons to the insurgency. The Russians side with Assad, and Osama bin Ladin will be spinning in his grave. All he wanted was a Middle East in such turmoil that the Americans would take their tired toys and soldiers and go home. Not so, it seems that the war has just changed neighborhoods and keeps going like an Energizer Bunny.
Using Vietnam and other proxy wars as a reference, here is how I believe the war in Syria is likely to progress over the coming months:
- Heavy weapons will be supplied to the insurgency, including anti-aircraft weapons, leading to increased casualties, especially civilian casualties.
- Assad will respond with expanded and deadly airstrikes and ground troops will advance with the aid of Hezbollah.
- Iran will begin openly supplying arms, and step up covert supplies of advisors and ground troops.
- Russia will increase arms shipments even further, including anti-ship, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles in order to dissuade U.S. and Israeli interests from sending their own forces into the area.
- Syrian insurgents will begin losing ground quickly. The UN will offer to “mediate” a ceasefire, but this will only be designed to allow the insurgents time to regroup, and for the U.S., EU and Israel to position themselves for attack. MOREHERE
