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First Quarter GDP Declined 1%

Friday, May 30, 2014 18:48

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(Before It's News)

TND Guest Contributor: Dave Kranzler |

The first revision of Q1 GDP showed that GDP declined 1%. If you strip out inflation, the contraction would be even more severe. The original Government Q1 estimate showed a .1% increase, before inflation is stripped out. Forecasters were expecting the revision to show a .5% decline. It came in at -1%. You can read Forbes’ reporting of this here: Recession Time.

Of course, in it’s infinite Einsteinian wisdom and superlative willingness to spin the facts, Bloomberg News is reporting that negative GDP number does not mean a recession. I guess they have their own “special” dictionary of economic definitions.

You tell me, does this look like a recession has set in (source Forbes, edit in red is mine):

Let me correct one mistake in the title of that graph. It says “real” GDP. But the number that’s being reported is “nominal” GDP, meaning it includes price inflation. If you strip out the price deflator used the Government of 1.3%, “real” GDP would -2.3%.

Bloomberg is also blaming the bad number on “the weather.” Oh, the dog ate my homework. But we know that’s not true because the retail sales and housing numbers continue to decline month to month this year through April. Sorry Bloomberg/media, April had great weather for the most part. Was it too sunny out to go shopping or look for a home?

The real economy is contracting even more quickly than the rigged Government numbers show. Retail sales are plunging, with both shopping mall and online sales registering declines. Real average weekly income is declining, inflation is heating up and more people leave the workforce everyday and take out student loans to enroll at OnlineUniversity.com.

It’s going to get very ugly in our system over the next several months. If you own gold and silver in your possession, hold on tight and add. If you don’t own any, may your Higher Power – whatever you call it – have mercy on your soul…

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About Dave Kranzler

I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. My goal is to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy. You can follow my work and contact me via my website Investment Research Dynamics. Occasionally, I publish on Seeking Alpha too. As a co-founder and principal of Golden Returns Capital, LLC Mr. Kranzler co-manages the Precious Metals Opportunity Fund, a metals and mining stock investment fund.