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Home Builder Sentiment Plummets At The Wrong Time

Thursday, May 15, 2014 14:08
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(Before It's News)

TND Guest Contributor:  Dave Kranzler |

Does anyone really still believe it’s the weather?  For anyone who still has hope for the housing market, don’t forget that “hope” rhymes with “dope.”

The NAHB released its monthly home builder prozac index today, which showed a continued decline right in the middle of what is supposed to be the 2nd/3rd best seasonal month of the year for home sales:

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders dropped in May to the lowest level in a year,showing the residential real estate market may be slow to recover after an unusually harsh winter.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment gauge fell to 45 this month, the weakest since May 2013, from a revised 46 in April that was lower than initially reported, figures from the Washington-based group showed today. Readings less than 50 mean fewer respondents report good market conditions. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 49.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m fatigued from hearing the “bad weather” term to describe deteriorating economic fundamentals.  I wonder what the excuse will be in July – it’s too hot?

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Aspen1-daveAbout Dave Kranzler

I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. My goal is to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy. You can follow my work and contact me via my website Investment Research Dynamics.  Occasionally, I publish on Seeking Alpha too.

As a co-founder and principal of Golden Returns Capital, LLC Mr. Kranzler co-manages the Precious Metals Opportunity Fund, a metals and mining stock investment fund.

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