Tlar’s Summary On Where We Are

The vacationing Tlar sent this out  Comment -  Here’s Where We Are.

Politics -

Maliki is finished.  There are certain articles that continue to appear that he has a chance but even those are beginning to wain.  Numerically the odds are totally against him. 

The voting results will be either announced Monday or Tuesday.  They will be official.

 It is expected that the coalition will have a total of about 185-190 MP’s from groups both within the NA combined with the Sunni’s and Kurds. 

It is also reported that Maliki sent emissaries illegally to trade plots of Iraqi land for votes, and money in country and overseas to buy votes in Iraq and from Iraqi’s all over the world.  He could not overcome the coalition even breaking the law. 

A very prominent business friend of Maliki’s just closed all his accounts and fled to Jordan because he obviously wants to go now before arrest warrants are issued.  He was the recipient of many contracts issued by the Maliki government. 

There is also 14 arrest warrants that are being issued and most likely many more, and the borders and airports being closed or are closed to certain individuals restricting their ability to leave the country. 

I am sure there is a list that is being written.  IMO they will need many notebooks to hold everyone going down for theft, graft, extortion and murder.

The international courts have also becvome involved.  At the first sign of blood they will go after these guys designating them international criminals.  They are working up charges of genicide against some in the regime. 

We know this because an article slipped out telling us this, followed by an article asking to repress any news on this saying investigations are ongoing.

No warrants have been issued yet by the international court.  As of a couple of days ago the UN has put a full court press on Iraq to sign an international protocall that says they will give up any person charged by the international court.  The box is closing and the rope is being made.

  Although nothing has been written yet in the news I feel comfortable that the NA has agreed to Maliki’s offer promising to pull his name for PM for a return promise not to prosecute the names of the people he submitted on his list. 

Both he and his son are on the list along with key members of DAWA and the SOL and certain military officers which I am quite sure have blindly followed Maliki committing atrocities. 

Everybody knows that Maliki will renig on that promise not to run if he can just find an opening. 

His word or signature means nothing to him. The SOL party is finally experiencing long time party members that are trying to join the coalition itself. 

They are going over to the winning team as I predicted.  I also predict once the vote is official, we will see the SOL diminish what little power it has left as their membership will quickly errode much further wanting to work with the coalition.  The SOL as a party will be marginalized.

MONEY

IMO the CBI’s last word still stands, “sometime on or around mid-year they plan to delete the zeros or sooner if the government is settled before then.  

This is the first time Turki has ever publically made a statement that included a possible date.  We don’t really understand his motivation for doing it but he did it. 

He has been a man who has shown a relutance to talk to the press other than have someone announce new changes at the CBI just before they occur.  He has made bold statements since January saying the CBI is independent and that they alone will decide the timing of this project.

We have found out through an article that the new new transition notes were designed and contracted sometime in 2013.  IMO now believe that the CBI thought that they were going to be delivered before the end of 2013 but something must have happened to delay their delevery. 

That also might account for the leak in late December that stated the CBI had confidentially proposed to to the EC and FC they were going to release the smalls and delete the zeros after the first of the year. 

This is speculation on my part but it would make sense that the CBI would halt the program until these notes, the 250, 500 and 1000 were ready to assist in the change. 

We also now know these bills have been being switched out wilth the old notes starting sometime in April.  For at least 4-5 weeks these bills have been being swapped. 

They have been trading new for old and if it is as I suspect the new are quickly going into circulation due mainly to the condition of the old notes.  Iraqi’s are like you and me in that respect. 

If I have a badly ripped or torn note that vendors refuse to take, I will drop by my bank and swap it for a good one vendors will take.  There have been no articles stating any relutance to the acceptance of the new bills.

RATE

Again I will speculate some on the rate.  I will tell you what I know and give opinion on the rest.  I do know and those of you that were invested in 2009 will remember that in one November 2009 on a Thursday night, Forex’s in Europe started to show the IQD at the same rate as the Euro $1.49. 

This event followed the rumors for weeks before saying that would be the rate.  I watched as many as 7 Forex’s had come up showing $1.49 as the value on the dinar. 

This started about 7:30 or 8 o’clock and lasted until about 12:00 o’clock.  At that time the dinar started to return to it beginning value.  One by one the price was being changed back. 

The last one finally changed at 7 o’clock the next morning.  The point is this.  The rate was loaded at $1.49 and either the CBI had changed its mind and stopped it or Forex’s realized they had jumped the gun without Iraq’s permission. 

The rumor of a dollaqr $1.49 was real.  In the month that followed Shabibi cleaned out all the leaks imbedded in the CBI and everyone lost their contact shortly after that.  There has vitually been no one with a contact that knows anything since then.

I have been a large proponent through the years saying delete the zeros means an 86 cent dinar.  It is now my belief we may be looking at a price somewhat higher. 

I believe we could see a value from $1.00 to somewhere in the $1.50 range. 

I have no proof or any article to support this but here is my reasoning.

 In 2009 Iraq had loaded $1.49 (the rumor value) and at that time Iraq’s currency reserves were less than 40 billion, oil was less than 1.5 million bpd, and there was much more dinar in circulation. 

As a side note the end of  2009 is when the US told Maliki that the Iranians were counterfeiting the dinar and selling it in Iraqi streets for good hard currency.  

But the rate was pre-loaded the loaded rate was $1.49.  Today Iraq has a run rate of over 3.5 million bpd, currency reserves of about 250 billion and much less currency in circulation. 

If they want to they can certainly support a higher rate.  In addition the rumor that I was included in makes more sense if the dinar is expected to come out a little higher than 86 cents for what supposedly I heard happened, to happen. 

We are less than 30 days from a new, democratic government to be seated and less than 45 days to July 1st.  There will be a non-sectarian government for the first time since the fall of Saddam if it comes as advertized. 

Kurdistan has been virtually shut down selling its oil until this month and it is expected they will quickly get to 400 thousand bpd if the political problems are resolved.