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Recent polling conducted by Latino Decisions continues to find that comprehensive immigration reform is an animating issue for Latino voters and if immigration reform does not happen this year, most Latino voters will hold the Republican Party responsible. Yet, the ability of Latinos and other pro-immigration reform voters to reward or punish members of Congress for their handling of immigration necessitates a competitive electoral environment where marginal shifts in both the composition and preferences of the electorate can make the difference.
Earlier, we identified seats in the House of Representatives held by both Democrats and Republicans that were closely contested in 2012 and that have significant shares of voting age Latinos. As we argued at the time, it is in these “Latino influence districts” where the dynamics of immigration reform are expected to be most salient come November. Now, as primary season begins to wane and the fall match-ups take shape, we can begin to assess these districts in more detail.
Published in HS News Network