The Web is ablaze with posts saying that the USA is planning to nuke Russia. Seemingly, this all began with an post in the World Socialist Website titled “US officials consider nuclear strikes against Russia“.

This post was then selected by Global Research which “upgraded” the headline to “Military Madness: US Officials Consider Nuclear Strikes against Russia“. After that everybody else harvested the panic-inducing artifice and ran with it.

This is all rubbish.

Here is what is really taking place.

This all actually began with the Associated Press posting a report about how the “US might deploy missiles in Europe to counter Russia“. Observe that this initial report talks of “countering” not “striking”. If you read the report, you will see that it is all extremely straightforward: some groups in the USA are accusing Russia of deploying intermediate range missiles in Europe in violation of the INF treaty. When the Pentagon brass was questioned about what the US could do about it they came up with a 100% foreseeable response: we will deploy our own missiles. That’s it.

The first question is if Russia did anything at all to breach the INF treaty. An outstanding post in the National Interest titled “Is Russia violating the INF treaty” clarifies it all: the whole scenario is based on nothing. Well, pretty much nothing. Here is what triggered all this panic:

1) Russia did fire some ICBMs (long range intercontinental missiles) at a shorter range a couple of times which would put their trajectory under the maximum limit of the INF. But since nobody debates that these missiles are ICBMs, this really means positively nothing.

2) There are some doubts that Russia might develop intermediate-range ground based cruise missile either based on the Iskander missile or on the Granat. But since there is zero evidence of that having happened, these accusations also suggest nothing.

What is actually taking place is very simple: since the USA is going ahead with its insane ideas to develop an anti-missile “shield” in Europe, Russia reacted by *threatening* to deploy (according to some sources, already deploying) its Iskanders in Kaliningrad and along its western borders. Iskanders are very suitable missile which scare the hell out of NATO because they would be ideal to strike forward deployed NATO command centers and forces. The apparent alternative for NATO would be NOT to deploy its command centers of forces so far the the East. Even more beneficial, scraping the idiotic missile-defense shield would totally solve this issue. But since NATO has to scare the Europeans by a non-existing Russian “threat”, NATO cannot do that: even though no such threat is present, the NATO guys need to show their tremendous courage and determination by doing all sorts of ridiculous and useless things. Like forward deploying.

Consequently the “brilliant” strategy, NATO currently has a bullseye painted on its pretty anti-missile facilities and forward deployed resources. And NATO don’t like that one bit. So they came up with yet another stupid but macho statement about “we will deploy our own intermediate range missiles to threaten the Russian intermediate range missiles”. Slight aspect: NATO command centers and forward deployed forces are either set or very easy to identify. Russian Iskanders are road mobile and essentially undetectable. But nevermind that, as long as the general public get a perception of 1) fear and b) NATO’s macho courage – all is well, correct?

So, lets recap: NATO is *considering* deploying missile which would be deployed to *respond* to a *possible* (future) breach by Russia of the INF treats. “Military madness”? Hell no! Just a garden assortment political grandstanding, that’s all. If the post in the World Socialist Website was deceptive, then the “upgraded” title of Global Research is outright irresponsible. Nobody in the USA is really thinking about using nuclear weapons against missiles on the Russian territory due to the fact everybody understands that this would guarantee a disastrous effect on the territory of the continental USA. Needless to say, if by the verb “considering” we mean “develop the capability to” then both sides have thought of nuking each other since the end of WWII. But these posts make it sound like the USA has all of a sudden chose to get ready for a nuclear attack on Russia, and that is utter rubbish.

Please also be aware that this whole discussion around the INF has absolutely nothing to do with the Ukraine. This is just a remake of the “Pershing/GLCM vs SS-20″ crisis of the 1980s. Been there, done that. Nothing new here.

The USA has no wish to indulge in a nuclear war with Russia. The real US strategy is very different, if no less dangerous: what the USA are undertaking is creating a crisis out of nothing by creating tensions on all levels, from the financial sector, to sports, to the totally manufactured INF issue. From the US perspective, the current efforts at subverting the FIFA and at subverting the INF Treaty are on the same conceptual stage: give them Russkies hell on all levels. And *of course* that this is risky, bordering on the reckless, actually. It is also self-defeating (you can bet that with the latest US ‘victory’ against Blatter just after he was re-elected the anti-US hatred in the world surged by another X number of points). Yes, the Empire is in a panic mode, behaving stupidly and attempting to “make the Russians blink” even though in the Russian culture threats and grandstanding are always translated as a signal of weakness.

One more thing: the Russians take into account the locations of deployment of the Iskanders a state secret. Put simply, they will not expose where these missiles are deployed or what they target (remember, Russians don’t believe in threats). At most, they will make sure that NATO understands about it, in general terms, if needed. But do not count on threats coming out of Moscow.

Lastly, the really intriguing question is whether the Russians will deploy a new generation of intermediate range missiles. If yes, they will broadcast it and officially withdraw from the INF. My sense is that they may possibly. The Russians are getting very, very fed up with the US/NATO/EU’s total absence of assistance, general bad will and regular small provocations. There is a special repugnance for central European prostitutes (Poland, Romania). The Kremlin could determine a easily military reality: since Russia has no offensive plans to attack Europe, US intermediate range missiles would actually serve no purpose in Europe while the local population could start to freak out, discovering US nuclear missiles come about in huge numbers. In contrast, since Russia is in a strictly defensive position, having intermediate range missiles might be very beneficial to protect against a possible NATO attack. Ultimately, there is the geographical factor: if Russian intermediate range missile strike in Europe, this would not be an attack on the US mainland. But if US intermediate range missiles strike in Russia, that would be an attack on the Russian mainland. So who do you think will have stronger reservation before pressing the button?

Obviously, I hope that intermediate range missiles do not get deployed. The very last thing the world wants right now is yet another form of tensions and fear. And, as I have authored many times here, while the USA prefers as high tensions as possible (short of actual war), Russia seriously needs the lowest tensions possible. So I believe that the Russians will secretly work on being ready to deploy intermediate range missiles at very short notice, but that they will try very hard to prevent a situation were this is likely to be needed.

Regardless, the next time you come across a panic-inducing headline à la “US about to nuke Russia” take a deep breath, do not jump to conclusions and give yourself time to find out if such affectation is justified or not.

Best wishes.

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