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New Recession Starts After Mid-Year – John Williams

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 15:13

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(Before It's News)

TND Videocast Spotlight: Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Economist John Williams correctly predicted the first quarter GDP in 2015 would turn negative. What is his second quarter prediction for GDP? Williams says, “I am looking for an outright contraction in the second quarter as well. Two back to back negative quarters in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be counted as a recession. GDP is very heavily bloated and inflated by all sorts of gimmicks. . . . In effect, we are seeing a weakening of the economy now that is dragging down these bloated numbers. I contend we never recovered from the collapse in 2008 and 2009. We have just been bottom bouncing. . . . It is beginning to turn down again. . . . Expectations for the second quarter will begin to sink.”

To back up Williams’ claim of a “sinking” economy, look no further than the Dow Transports which show a clear downtrend. There are many more signs of trouble as Williams contends, “. . . The better quality numbers show the economy is sinking. For example, industrial production, published by the Federal Reserve, has contracted dramatically in the first quarter, and it is a virtual certainty to contract in the second quarter. . . . Year-to year growth of industrial production is at a level that you only see going into recession. New orders of durable goods, that’s a leading indicator to industrial production. It contracted in the fourth quarter, it contracted in the first quarter, and it is basically in the second quarter. . . . I think it will be down when all the numbers are in, and that will indicate a further contraction in the third quarter of this year. Now, where you have has stronger numbers in the last month or so is with the housing numbers. Home sales and housing starts, but those numbers are highly volatile and they are extremely unstable. . . . You look at those numbers, you are down anywhere between 30%-60% from where you were before the (2008-2009) recession. . . . Those numbers are going to start to turn down.”

Click here to read the rest of Greg Hunter’s write-up and to access the active comment section.

After the interview: John Williams has some free information on the home page of his website ShadowStats.com. He also sells detailed research to billion dollar money managers and hedge funds. If you would like to subscribe to his research, you can do so for $175 per year, or $89 for six months, by clicking here.

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About Greg Hunter:

Mr. Hunter is the producer and creator of Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows. Greg encurages feedback and welcomes comments. You may also support USAWatchdog.com by clicking here to donate. Reprinted with permission.