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Professor Who Says His Statistical Model Has Accurately Predicted Election Outcomes for 104 Years Unveils Odds of a President Donald Trump
A political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University believes the statistical odds of businessman Donald Trump becoming the next president are between 97 and 99 percent.
That professor, Helmut Norpoth, says his statistical forecast model shows the Manhattan mogul’s chances of beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton are at 97 percent, while his chances of defeating Bernie Sanders are at 99 percent. Overall, the model predicts that there is a 61 percent chance that a Republican will win the White House in November.
Norpoth, who announced his model’s results earlier this week, says his model is very accurate — and has been for 104 years. The statistical model, which uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary in addition to electoral cycle patterns, has correctly predicted the general election outcome for every presidential election dating back to 1912.
There is only one exception to the model’s accuracy: The 1960 presidential election. This gives the model an accuracy rating of 96.1 percent …. http://linkis.com
Source: http://luismmx.blogspot.com/2016/02/professor-who-says-his-statistical.html
