Precious metals turned in beautiful moves today – mostly organic, and there are not a lot of cartel attempts to contain the moves. To see what looks like regular and normal profit taking following silver’s blast higher today is, truly, quite unusual and it speaks to the exact same underlying narrative I advanced before the COMEX open. Generally speaking, the cartel doesn’t like to attack in the face of huge momentum. Some people were expecting a sharp take-down last Friday. Many expected the same today. If you want to understand why the exact opposite happened, read my post I published today, before the COMEX market opened: Click here.
There are new buyers hovering around the precious metals market (read my Facebook messages to Jason Burack if you want to see me handicap in realtime the visibility of their “footprints,” so to speak). Now, the most important new development is that Western conventional money and speculative hot money – both – are starting to flow into paper gold, and pulling silver along for the ride.
A new cartel “managed retreat” is necessary – indeed, mandatory. These geniuses have destroyed too much forward precious metals mine supply while turning the shadow banking system excesses into a deflating monstrosity that would make John Law blush. In fact, the fact that a managed retreat as necessity is one of the take-away points we can glean from 2016’s precious metals action, to date. We’re already seeing the cartel back off. The first phase of a general managed retreat is indeed happening right before our eyes.
The cynics among you are no doubt thinking, “What’s going to happen next, smart a$$?” Well, tomorrow or Wednesday is actually when we might see momentum slow enough to where the cartel will have the opportunity to act more aggressively. Generally, that too, is well described in my article I wrote earlier this morning. But I didn’t address how the COT reporting window fits into this picture. Given the nature of the reporting timeframe when bullion banks report their trading/inventory data to the CME each week, it’s technically easier from a “trading book” management point of view to conceal manipulation by executing the most aggressive actions somewhere in the middle of a COT reporting week, where trades put on for the purpose of manipulation can be managed, reversed to some extent and hidden better just as part of “normal” trading/client book management. How many times have we seen that pattern? Enough said. For all we know, the data provided by the bullion banks to the CME is massaged. It’s not like we live in a world were rule of law and sound regulation oversee our markets and the change to the CME disclaimer regarding COT data is fishy to say the least.
The bigger picture forecast that I first presented during the fourth quarter of 2014 regarding the timing of the downturn and unfolding of the current bear market in conventional equities and the timing and process by which the solvency rot would eventually become better understood is indeed what we are seeing play out, and it’s playing out with many of the mile markers I talked about now visible in the rear-view mirror (e.g., that 2H-2015 would be the start of what I termed the “crisis window” and process event for a multi-year bear market, and that a 2015 spike-down ala 1987 was NOT the model for 2015, that “Shemitah” was b.s. and spun by those that outright misreported past bull and bear market cycle start and end dates to advance their thesis, that Greece was going to mostly be a 2016 story, not 2015, etc.).
For those among you that would like more context, click here to listen to my interview with Dr. Dave Janda recorded back on Jan. 18, and last week’s podcast Jason and I produced (click here).
