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Handicapping Endgame Scenario w/ Harvey Organ: SD Weekly Metals & Markets
With Gold and Silver Hammered Ahead of the Holiday Weekend, Harvey Organ Joined the Show to Break Down All the Action, Discussing:
- Why we are seeing a raid
- On the GLD: Someone’s buying 2 tons of gold & the price gets slaughtered!?!
- “How this game ends”: END GAME will happen “This year”
- China threatens US gov’t with massive renminbi devaluation
- Is the cartel about to roll back gold & silver’s entire 2016 bull move?
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WEEKLY WRAP WRITE-UP By Eric Dubin
When silver ticked above $16 this week, for a brief moment it looked like the cartel was going to be forced to let silver move higher – and gold, in turn. No dice. Going back all the way to the February 11th intraday spike high, silver has touched or exceeded $16 on a spot basis three times! Clearly, the cartel has drawn a “line in the sand” at $16. No surprise. There have been a couple of recent trading days when silver was showing a bit more strength versus gold, and we even saw the gold/silver ratio start to decline ever so slightly.
Harvey Organ joined us on Good Friday. The London Metals Exchange and the COMEX were closed. The LME will be closed on Monday. Once normal trading resumes next week, all March COMEX precious metals options contracts will have expired. This week, that pending expiration status has had a lot to do with why the cartel was beating precious metals prices down.
Can’t have speculators rewarded with too many profitable long positions, lest animal spirits truly get “out of control.” Generally speaking, over the last month we’ve seen rising open interest and a fat and growing commercial short position in both silver and gold COMEX options. The cartel has been itching for a fight, and they finally got their break.
Wednesday’s downdraft was downright ugly. Nevertheless, it’s fair to say this downdraft is nothing compared to the shellacking the cartel has been able to pull off during previous years. No doubt, nothing would please the bullion price managers more than to erase the entire upward move from, say, Feb. 1st. That’s not very likely, because ~$1,120 gold and $~14.20 silver would stimulate a veritable tsunami of physical bullion purchases, especially in Asia.
For the better part of March, Indian jewelers were on strike, protesting the latest government taxation scheme. Indian imports are coming back online. It’s also worth noting for amusement value if nothing else that the one large temple that agreed to go along with the government’s hair-brained bullion storage scheme is now asking that they be guaranteed the right to get physical gold back at a later date. Good luck with that!
Bottom-line: I do believe we have significant risk for still further downside, but if I had to quantify probability for the sake of discussion, I believe we have greater than 80% probability that the cartel will NOT be able to get gold below $1,175 next week. I expect this week’s damage to be repaired rather quickly. We might even turn around starting at the beginning of next week and there’s a reasonable chance gold will not even fall below $1,197 (intraday slice through $1,200, and that’s it – time will tell).
If I’m correct, this is going to surprise those that are fixated on the remaining, high commercial short positions and what that portends, at least, historically, when it comes to reading how bullion banker miscreants are likely about to act. Suffice it to say, I have concluded that 2016 precious metals trading is exhibiting very different accumulation patterns. There are enough “new” buyers lurking around and wanting more exposure – both paper and physical buyers – that 2016 will mark a change with how the “commitment of traders” picture is going to manifest itself. It’s also a historical fact that at the start of bull market moves, “excessive” commercial short concentration as reported with the COMEX “commitment of traders” data is not as tightly correlated with pending raids.
Thus, for all of these reasons and more, I’m not in the camp that is currently fretting about COT data. I will get a lot of flack for this declaration. So be it. Two weeks from now, I will either be proven correct, or I’ll dine on fat, juicy crow I’ll happily eat – so long as I at least get some Tabasco to season the beast. Ultimately, “calling” an exact bottom is not as important as getting the underlying conditions of the market correct, an understanding that is more easily developed during the process of jumping through the hoops necessary when formulating a forecast. The cartel could get belowFeb. 1st levels, of course, but the fundamentals are going to prove “stackers” correct.
The market for physical gold and silver remains very tight, and that does have a dampening impact on the degree to which the cartel can manipulate paper markets. I believe we’re going to bottom next week. No matter what one looks at, fundamentals have only improved for precious metals, and the decline in precious metals runs counter to all fundamental data that has come out in the last two weeks.
I challenge anyone to site a single negative fundamental data point. One could point to the dollar’s move higher against the DXY index over the last few trading days, but I’d argue that that has been a move reflecting a short-term reversion to the mean “bounce-back,” partially stimulated by foolish and lingering hopium interpretations of the March employment report and the misguided notion that the Fed will be able to continue with its 2016 plan to raise the Federal Funds rate another 50 basis points, seasoned with whatever the heck central banker market managers are doing vis-a-vis currencies (e.g., lots of volatility in the renminbi/dollar cross – and Harvey discusses this during the show).
The only economic data that anyone can point to as a “negative” for gold is the laughably manipulated March employment report. Economists are operating under a truly shocking level of normalcy bias and ignorance. The revisions that have been introduced over the decades to change the way economic statistics are measured and reported must have Orwell spinning in his grave, and the mainstream business media almost never discusses this fact.
Harvey makes some very interesting observations about how the “end game” will unfold, particularly as it pertains to how China has been acting, and what they might do on a going forward basis. Listen to the show for Harvey’s take.
Click here to access the Silver Doctors’ archive of Harvey’s articles. To visit his website, click here.
WEEKEND LINKS:
- Harvey Organ: Holiday Gold Smackdown!
- The System Will Implode When Central Bank Intervention Fails – Dave Kranzler
- Paul Craig Roberts Sizes-Up Economy, US Election, TPP, Empire, Obamacare And Other Domestic Policy Agendas
- Outstanding March 22nd “Shadow of Truth” PCR interview covering MANY topics – click here
- Derivatives & Deutsche Bank: Jim Willie Unleashes Historic Holiday Rant
- Brussels Attack: The True Implications Of ISIS Links – Tony Cartalucci
- Heckuva Job, Merkel – ISIS Terror Squads Swarm Europe – Daniel McAdams
- What You Need To Know About The Belgium Attacks – Luke Rudkowski, We Are Change
Thank you for checking out this week’s podcast – Eric Dubin, independent financial/geopolitical analyst, managing editor, The News Doctors.
Source: http://thenewsdoctors.com/handicapping-endgame-scenario-w-harvey-organ-sd-weekly-metals-markets/
