Dutch Parliamentary Elections as a Test of EU’s Popularity in the Netherlands
Unlike the hotly contested presidential elections in the U.S. and legislative elections in Georgia, the general elections held in the Netherlands in September 2012, attracted little media attention.* The Dutch elections mostly strengthened the status quo, although some important changes in the balance of powers were effected as well. Like the U.S. and Georgian votes, the Dutch elections were in large measure an informal referendum on the economic situation and foreign policy, specifically on the country’s relations to the EU. The winner was the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who handed in his government’s resignation to Queen Beatrix in April 2012 precipitating this election. VVD received a plurality of the votes and gained 10 additional seats in the 150-seat Dutch parliament. But its margin of victory was rather slim, as the next biggest party, the Labor Party (PvdA), ended up with only 3 fewer seats. Prior to the election, polls had predicted an increase in support for the Socialist Party, led by Emile Roemer, primarily at the expense of the Labor Party. Such expectations were not met, as the Labor Party conducted a winning campaign under the leadership of Diederik Samsom. As a result, the Socialist Party failed to increase its seats. The two biggest losers in this election were the Party for Freedom (PVV), headed by Geert Wilders, and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), led by Sybrand van Haersma Buma, which lost nine and eight seats, respectively.
As can be seen from the maps, reproduced on the left from ElectoralGeography.com, there are some interesting geographical patterns in the distribution of the votes. The center-right VVD party gained most votes in areas surrounding larger cities such as Amsterdam, Haarlem, the Hague, and Breda, though not in cities proper. The Labor Party’s main base remained in Amsterdam, as well as in the northern provinces of Friesland, Groningen, and Drenthe. The Socialist Party was particularly popular in rural areas in eastern North Brabant and northern Limburg, as well as in the far-north province of Groningen. Wilders’s PVV is strongest in the south, especially in Limburg, while CDA got most votes in Overijssel and Friesland.
According to the pre-election polls, the economy was the most important issue among voters. The economic policies of the VVD leader Mark Rutte aligned with those of German Chancellor Angela Merkel as both promote austerity measures, while Labor Party’s Diederik Samsom sided with French President Francois Hollande’s stimulus measures. Two days before the election, Rutte said that he would stop delegating ever-increasing powers to the European Union, saying: “I am ‘Mr No’ when it comes to a Brussels that’s expanding more and more”. Yet Samsom was perceived as having the better performance in the debates, resulting in an increase in support for him and his Labor Party. The losses of PVV and the declining popularity of Geert Wilders, noted for his firm stance against Muslim immigration, are due in part to the fact that he was viewed as a political opportunist not looking out for the national interest: it was Wilder’s refusal to sanction the austerity measures the government sought in April 2012 that led to the fall of Rutte’s government and the call for this early election, the fifth such election in a decade. Moreover, PVV’s Euroscepticism agenda (that is, criticism of the European Union and opposition to political European integration) was effectively appropriated by the VVD. Other aspects of the PVV’s program, perceived largely as anti-Islamic and reactionary, gain little support, and neither did Wilders’s confrontational style. Wilders has been trying hard to gain support from Jewish quarters by projecting a pro-Israel image and downplaying measures that can be characterized as anti-Semitic, such as the proposed ban on all ritual slaughter (including kosher slaughter), listed in PVV’s party program (second to last bullet point on p. 55).
While the Dutch elections seem to show that increasing skepticism of Brussels, it is predicted that the centre-left government, newly formed following almost two months of coalition talks, is likely to take a pro-European Union turn. VVD’s 41 seats fall short of the 76 seats needed for a majority, and Prime Minister Mark Rutte made an alliance with Diederik Samsom’s Labor Party, rather than with the much weakened Christian Democrats or the anti-Islam, anti-EU party of Geert Wilders, on whose informal support (or “toleration”) he was dependent for the previous two years. One of the first signs of the new pro-EU direction is the appointment of Labor Party’s Frans Timmermans as foreign minister. Timmermans is strongly pro-EU, was previously involved in negotiations on an EU constitution, and speaks fluent French, Italian, German, and English. Yet, even though the government coalition now contains the Labor Party, whose leader Samsom has backed giving Greece more time to right its economy, the Dutch feel strongly about putting their own national budget in order. The coalition is based on agreeing to a harsh austerity program of some €15 billion (US$19 billion) in cuts, coupled with increased taxes in a strenuous attempt to get the budget deficit down to below the EU guideline of 3% of GDP.
*Al Jazeera is exceptional in giving this election more coverage than many other media outlets, mostly due to the Geert Wilders angle.
GeoCurrents.info provides map-illustrated analyses of current events, delving into the often overlooked geographic and cultural contexts that shape these world developments. Led by Stanford University Senior Lecturer Martin W. Lewis and linguist Asya Pereltsvaig.
2012-11-13 20:45:57
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