Is China’s Economy Staring Down The Bottomless Pit

All major macro data from China over the last 2 days have been disappointing.

The third quarter started on a surprisingly weak note for China despite all the talks (and hope) on stimulus and monetary policy easing.

The macro data pretty much confirm our view that economic growth did not reach a bottom in the second quarter as the consensus used to believe.

If anything, the economy seems to be worsening somewhat again.

Wrap up of July macro data:

CPI Inflation +1.8% yoy, PPI –2.9% yoy

Industrial production +9.2% yoy

Fixed asset investment +20.4% yoy

Retail sales +13.1% yoy

Exports +1.0% yoy, Imports +4.7% yoy

New loans +RMB540.1 billion

After these weak numbers pointing to hardly any recovery, we believe that the market will step up their talks on further and more aggressive stimulus both on fiscal and monetary sides, and we suspect that the consensus will be shifting from believing in a Q2 bottom to a Q3 bottom (which has been happening for a few quarters now: theeconomy will recover next quarter, said everyone in every quarter).

Read more here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-chinas-economy-staring-down-bottomless-pit