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‘Grudging Declines in Part-Time Employment’
This is from Robert Barbera of the Center for Financial Economics at John
Hopkins:
Much Ado About Not Much, by Robert J. Barbera, Center for Financial
Economics, Johns Hopkins University: The allegedly shocking increase in September’s
tally of household employment, and the fact that the lion’s share of that
increase reflected gains in those self-identifying as part time employees for
economic reasons is much ado about almost nothing. …[T]he surge in part time employment is almost
certainly a reflection of faulty seasonal adjustments. We witnessed three
monthly spikes in the tally for part time for economic reasons. A spike in 2010
totaled 579,000. A spike in 2011 totaled 483,000. Most recently, we witnessed a
spike of 582,000. All three occurred in September. …
Two Pictures Tell The Story:
Glance at the two charts below. The spike in monthly part timers is visible
three times. Three-month average data and it is hard to see.
How do we get out from under seasonals? The second chart below looks at part
time, not seasonally adjusted (NSA), 12-month moving average data. Grudging
declines in part time employment is the unambiguous message.
2012-10-10 04:20:30
Source:
