Beware the Distorted Reality of the Stock Market

He was asked about stocks that in a way represent the American Dream and if these stocks’ recent rise is disconnected from reality.

“Four stocks suggest the American Dream is alive and well in the markets,” said today’s host Charles Payne. “What do you make of it? And, is the market a leading indicator?”

Keith offered up a unique way to assess the current situation.

“I think these stocks have gotten ahead of themselves for the simple reason that the numbers don’t bear out the optimism,” said Fitz-Gerald. “As for whether or not the market is a leading indicator, that’s up for debate. But if you look at some interesting albeit unusual indicators like the “women’s skirt length’ indicator, you get a different picture.”

“Call it pseudo-science if you will, this indicator was created by Wharton economist Robert Taylor in 1926 and has been studied extensively since then,” continued Fitz-Gerald. “Fashion trends are to longer skirt lengths now, which suggests another 2-4 years of conservative market conditions. And I’d take the skirt index, as a reflection of mass psychology over stocks that have gotten ahead of themselves despite underlying bad data any day.”

Keith points out that women’s skirts are the longest they’ve been since the Great Depression, a very conservative sign.

Watch the entire video to see all of Keith’s skirt index analysis.