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Fed Report: 100% Chance of Recession
Posted by Wealth Wire - Thursday, November 8th, 2012
Now that the election is over, the propaganda media can back off the burying of those critical stories that they couldn’t be bothered to report in the lead up to the re-election of President Obama.
What are we talking about?
For starters, the Federal Reserve’s recent report, which received nary a comment from the political and financial pundits on television.
While the economy was on the minds of most voters last night, what they didn’t know may have very well swung the election to one candidate over another.
And this particular tidbit of data is as important as it gets when we’re talking about economic health:
Via SGT Report and The Daily Crux with commentary by Pragmatic Capitalism:
Here’s an interesting new data point that the St Louis Fed has put together to calculate recession probabilities:
“Recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. “
What’s interesting about this index is the current reading. At 20%, the index is at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. As you can see below, the index has never approached 20% without a subsequent recession. All 6 recessions since 1967 have coincided with 20%+ readings in the US Recession Probabilities index.
It’s no secret that the economy is still hurting. According to this report we are on the verge of another recession within the midst of a broader ‘depression.’ Contrarian analysts have already suggested this is the case, with many saying we’ve been in recession since at least summer.
More here: http://www.wealthwire.com/news/economy/4130?r=1
You all lost, Obama added over $5 trillion to the debt mountain, how can that be a good track-record, you’re facing a fiscal cliff, you’ve reached your $16.4 Trillion debt ceiling, what are you going to do now? Increase it again? It’s madness, and who will want to buy US Securities, I doubt China will be first in the queue, they’re already stocking up on gold as a hedge against a dollar collapse.
Oh that’s right tax the rich even more, they’ll just leave take their money, and stop spending and investing, and on top of that US business is buried in mindless bureaucracy, regulations and red-tape, no wonder companies are out-sourcing to India and China.
Even if both Houses do agree to increasing the debt mountain, the US will be downgraded by rating agencies anyway, it’s time to start living within your means and allow businesses to breathe.
The USA at the moment is just a declining Zombie Economy, just like here in the EU.
A massive crash is coming, maybe then the people in the EU and US will finally wake up to reality.