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Preliminary November 2012 Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Post Recession High
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary number for November came in at 84.9, well above the November final of 82.6. Today’s number handily beat the Briefing.com consensus of 83.0. This is the highest sentiment level since July 2007.
It will be particularly interesting to see if November final will confirm the improvement in the mood of the consumer.
See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched index. Prior to the last recession, the sentiment index had been trending upward since its inception in 1978, so I added a linear regression to help understand the pattern of reversion to the trend. I’ve also highlighted recessions and included real GDP to help evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy. The first thing I noticed in today’s update of this chart is that sentiment has finally moved fractionally above the regression, and the regression has essentially become a flat line. I’ll probably retire the trendline after this update.
2012-11-09 19:49:55
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