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Most Polls Are Meaningless At This Point
Monty Pelerin / EconomicNoise.com
In the social sciences, reality is what is perceived. That is what the mainstream media is banking on when they publish their distorted poll results showing Obama leading Romney. If these polls can make enough voters believe that Romney has no chance, then the media may tip the election in favor of Obama.
At this stage of the race, the best polling to follow is Rasmussen. At the two week point, polls will converge, not necessarily because the race has become definitive. Pollsters will then try their best to predict, rather than influence, the outcome. After all, they must live to poll another day.
The following is an example of how such poll results are achieved:
CBS POLL: GOP HAS HUGE TURNOUT EDGE OVER DEMS
Republican enthusiasm on upswing despite media claims Romney campaign has crashed
(Breitbart) One of the chief reasons the media is so mistaken in their zeal to proclaim Obama the election winner is that most of the polls they’re basing their predictions on are wildly inflating Democrat turnout. The overwhelming majority of media polls are an assuming an electorate that is at least as Democrat as the one in 2008, with many polls assuming a higher Democrat turnout. This is just daft. The latest CBS poll of 3 swing states is the most recent to show that GOP has a huge turnout advantage over Democrats.
Yesterday, CBS/NYT released its latest Quinnipiac poll of Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin. With the exception of CO, the polls had heavy Democrat skews, so the head-to-head match-ups aren’t particularly informative. What was telling though was the differences in enthusiasm between the two parties.
http://www.economicnoise.com
