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Not So Rosie: What Keeps a Gloomy Realist Up at Night
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Yesterday, we were offered 'hopes and prayers' by Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg. However, as he warned then, there are some things to be worried about. From the wide gaps in voting patterns across socio-economic lines and the expectations that populist policies will be the hallmark of Obama's second term to the mixed-to-negative data across employment data, consumer spending indications, housing, and Europe; it appears the market is starting to price in some positive probability of a fiscal cliff and these macro data do nothing to subsidize that reality.
Via David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff:
The wide gaps in voting patterns across socio-economic lines were as wide as they have ever been (55% of those earning more than $250,000 voted for Romney, while 42% voted for Obama; 59% of the white vote went to Romney, just 39% to Obama: the black vote went 93% for Obama and just 6% for Romney). If Obama caters to those who voted for him, then we can certainly expect populist policies to be the hallmark of his second term. Let's hope in this quest for greater income equality that he doesn't narrow the band by dragging everybody's purchasing power down. While the President does not face the Great Recession of four years ago, he does confront the "Not So Great Recovery" nonetheless.The data remain broadly mixed, but even data like the last jobs report are lacking the necessary wage-based income growth needed to generate sustainable growth, let alone durable above-potential growth. The recently-released .JOLTS report (Job Opening Labor Turnover Survey) showed a jobs market that in fact is taking three steps back for every step forward. One step back was the job openings number, which in September sank 100k, down two of the past three months to a five month low of 3.561 million (much lower than the market call for a modest decrease to 3.65 million). The second step back was in hiring activity, which also shrank 255k in September, down three of the past four months and the largest decline since April 2011. The private sector cut 201k jobs and the public sector shed 55k. And the third step backward was in the number of job quitters which fell 175k in what was the sharpest falloff since November 2008 – as well
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2012-11-08 22:21:07
Source: http://www.philstockworld.com/2012/11/08/its-not-so-rosie-what-keeps-a-gloomy-realist-up-at-night/
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