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The Big Picture on Bonds
I’m going to be taking a careful look at bonds today but first I’ll look at the position on SPX after yesterday’s retest of broken triangle support.
On the SPX daily chart we saw a bounce to test the daily middle bollinger band and then a reversal to retest the broken rising wedge resistance trendline from 2011 that has been holding as support this week. It’s worth noting that yesterday’s low was only four points above the daily lower bollinger band so I’m counting that as a technical hit and we could well see a bounce from that hit of a key technical support level. SPX daily chart:
On the seven month SPX 60min chart of the broadening ascending wedge from November there is currently a falling wedge in play from the high. If we see a break below this week’s low at 1622.72 then I’d expect a fast move to test broadening wedge support in the 1595 area. Otherwise we could see that falling wedge break up. SPX 60min chart:
Looking at the SPX 15min chart the high yesterday was a retest of broken triangle support, but it has also set up a possible double-bottom. On a break with any confidence below 1622.72 I’d expect a move to test the 1595 area, but if we see a bounce today and then a break above both yesterday’s high at 1646.53 and declining resistance from the high in the same area then I would have a double-bottom target in the 1670 area and we could well then see a test of the highs. SPX 15min chart:
Ryan Mallory is the co-founder of SharePlanner Inc, a financial website devoted to Day-Trading, Swing-Trading (both long & short) and exchange-traded funds. Ryan makes a strong emphasis on risk mitigation strategies, trading transparency, and trader education – not to mention a great set of stock screens as well.
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Source: http://www.shareplanner.com/featured-blogs/network-blogs/channels-and-patterns/17428-the-big-picture-on-bonds.html
