House Vote Shelved

Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Jun. USD is Up at 99.690.
Energies: May Crude is Up at 47.92.
Financials: The June 30 year bond is Down 7 ticks and trading at 150.10.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is 16 ticks Higher and trading at 2344.00.
Gold: The April gold contract is trading Down at 1244.20. Gold is 30 ticks Lower than its close.
Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and crude is Up+ which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are Up and Crude is trading Up which is not correlated. Gold is trading Down which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
At this hour all of Asia is trading higher. Currently Europe is trading higher as well.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today

– Core Durable Goods Orders is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
– Durable Goods Orders is out at 8:30 AM. This is major.
– Flash Manufacturing PMI out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.
– Flash Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.

Treasuries
We’ve elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it’s liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
Yesterday the ZB made it’s move at around 10 AM at around the time New Home Sales was reported. The ZB hit a high at around that time and the YM hit a low. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 10 AM and the YM was moving higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a high at around 10 AM and the YM hit a low. These charts represent the newest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform Click on an image to enlarge it.
ZB – June, 2017 – 3/23/17
YM- June, 2017 – 3/23/17
Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an upside bias as both the Bonds and Gold were trading lower. The Dow dropped 5 points and the other indices dropped fractionally. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary

Yesterday we gave the markets an upside bias as both the Bonds and Gold were trading lower yesterday morning and ordinarily this represents an upside bias. Most of the session the indices remained in positive territory as predicted. However at around 2 PM EST in the afternoon it became apparent that the long awaited vote from the House of Representatives on healthcare would NOT be forthcoming as the vote was postponed. Why? Because the Republicans know that they don’t have enough enough votes to ensure passage to the Senate therefore they postponed the vote. They can try to browbeat their fellow Republicans as much as they like but it probably won’t help. The Republicans who won’t side with Trump and Ryan know that this bill is inadequate and will raise premiums and their constituents back home will never forgive or forget. Trump doesn’t care about that because he wants the bill passed so he can work on other issues (tax cuts, infrastructure, etc.). He doesn’t care because bill has nothing to do with him or those close to him personally. Yet many Republicans who are opposed to this bill have already stated “why not fix this bill and do the job right the first time” and they are right. This is what happens when you have inexperienced people running government because they don’t understand the process. Case-in-point the second travel ban was again and also shot down by judges. Now there is the prospect that this bill may be voted on today however we think that if the bill isn’t fixed, it won’t pass. BTW – as we’ve stated previously: if you want to drain the swamp, you need to know how the swamp operates.

Just so you understand, Market Correlation is Market Direction. It attempts to determine the market direction for that day and it does so by using a unique set of tools. In fact TradersLog published an article on this subject that can be viewed at: http://www.traderslog.com/market-cor…ket-direction/


Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I’m proud of the fact that they did as I’m Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled “How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation” and can be viewed at:
View article on Futures Mag
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I’ve produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at: View article on Futures Mag
Many subscribers have asked what is the best time of day to trade? A recent article published by Futures Magazine may shed some light on the subject: http://www.futuresmag.com/2015/01/15…orning-trading


As readers are probably aware I don’t trade equities. While we’re on this discussion, let’s define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter’s earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company’s shares. This is one of the reasons I don’t trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don’t have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc. Anytime the market isn’t correlated it’s giving you a clue that something isn’t right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We’ll have to monitor and see.
As I write this the crude markets are Higher and the futures are trading Higher. This is not normal. Crude and the markets are now reverse correlated such that when the markets are rising, crude drops and vice-versa. Yesterday May Crude dropped to a low of $47.58 a barrel. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $47.27 a barrel and resistance at $49.10. This could change. We’ll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. Please note that the front month for crude is now May. Last December and after two years OPEC finally decided to cut production but the price crude is still tame (as of this writing). What they haven’t figured out yet is that the more countries like Canada and the US produce their own crude (by whatever means) the more crude prices will fall. The move by OPEC to cut production in an attempt to pump up prices is liken to “too little, too late” as the world doesn’t need their oil as much as they used to. Power equipment that used to need oil (Grass Trimmers, Lawn Mowers, Autos) now run on battery power and Canada and the United States are producing more of their own crude. As an update to this the non-OPEC countries have come to an agreement to unilaterally cut production across the board and this has served to temporarily raise crude prices. We’ll have to see if and how long this lasts…

Apparently it didn’t last too long as crude is now trading below the proverbial $50.00 a barrel.

If trading crude today consider doing so after 10 AM EST when the markets gives us better direction.

Future Challenges

Today its assumed that the House of Representatives will cast their vote on the American Health Care Act otherwise known as Ryancare or Trumpcare depending on who you talk to. Many Republicans are wary of this bill as they know healthcare premiums will increase and they don’t want to face their constituents back home if it does pass. They know (as we’ve already stated) that if you have an issue paying your premium when the government is offering a subsidy, you’re really going to have an issue when issuing a tax credit. A Tax Credit means you pay the full premium up front and then at year end you get a credit from the federal government. Thats how the CBO has stated that in 2018 14 million Americans will lose their healthcare and those approaching retirement will have it even worse as their premiums will skyrocket. President Trump isn’t concerned about that as he only wants to show a victory and let someone else deal with the details.

TradersLog has just published an article entitled “So You Think You Can Trust Your Elected Officials?” That article can be viewed at: http://www.traderslog.com/trust-elected-officials

Crude Oil Is Trading Lower

Crude oil is trading Higher and the markets are Higher. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today’s market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn’t have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I’m not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading. Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it’s monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.

Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a daily newsletter that is dedicated to your trading success. We teach and discuss market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com. Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.