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Asian Session Notes 9/04/12 – Waiting for the RBA Rate Decision
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5909 moderate / 1.5950 minor / 1.6000 psychological
Support: 1.5847 minor / 1.5798 minor / 1.5745 minor
At the close we saw a modest spinning top in Cable keeping the idea of a double top in the daily charts viable though indicators still has stochastic overbought and the macd’s flat above the signal. In the lower time frames we have a bullish bias from the 4H picture with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s also pointing higher. Note we have a pattern of higher highs and higher lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic coming out of oversold levels and macd’s bottoming out. Immediate risk calls for a push higher with a break of 1.5909 opening the possibility of heading to the psychological 1.6000 region.
EURAUD
Resistance: 1.2317 minor / 1.2389 strong / 1.2442 minor
Support: 1.2269 minor / 1.2231 moderate / 1.2188 minor
EURAUD continued its rally for the past month with Monday turning out bullish despite the high wave spinning top from Friday’s close, the gap courtesy of China weakness. Among indicators we have stochastic crawling in overbought areas while the macd line is pointing up. From the 4H picture we have a bullish bias as stochastic crosses higher while inside overbought levels the macd indicator itself is also bullish. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic pushing overbought while the macd line is also poised to cross higher. With data coming out we prefer remaining sidelined though a read much weaker than the -12.3 Billion consensus forecast for Current Account can be an excuse for pushing even higher.
AUDJPY
Resistance: 80.35 minor / 80.66 moderate / 80.97 minor
Support: 80.05 moderate / 79.50 moderate / 78.95 moderate
As with Aussy Dollar we have AUDJPY just above the 38.2 Fib retracement of the rally from June 01. The week saw a bearish gap at the open of Wellington trade and a follow through decline to the current area, just above 80.05. Among indicators we have daily EMA lines forming dead crosses while stochastic is crawling in oversold levels and macd is dropping. In the lower time frames we have 4H candles suggesting a loss of momentum with a sequence of hammers, inverted hammers and a doji while indicators has stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s flat below the signal. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys. At this point preferred course of action is to remain sidelined ahead of Australian current account numbers at 0130GMT and the interest rate announcement at 0430GMT.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0257 minor / 1.0276 minor / 1.0299 minor
Support: 1.0211 strong / 1.0175 minor / 1.0123 minor
Following over the weekend results in China Aussy gapped lower and saw a follow through for the rest of the day easing down to just above the key support 1.0211 previous breakout point and 38.2 Fib of the rally from June 1. From indicators we have daily stochastic crawling oversold while macd is also heading lower. Note daily EMA lines have begun to form dead crosses. Intraday we are currently seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold levels though macd is bearish suggesting we may be oscillating around 20 for the stochastic main line. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic oversold and macd topping off. Given the strong support we prefer seeing an early close under the 1.0211 region to signal further weakness take too long and any base building above 1.0211 may signal a bounce by the time European markets open. Note we have Australian events risks going forward.
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2012-09-03 22:15:07
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-90412-waiting-for-the-rba-rate-decision
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