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Asian Session Notes 9/10/12: Waiting for the Chinese Trade figures
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6048(52) strong / 1.6099 minor / 1.6124 minor
Support: 1.5994 minor / 1.5943 minor / 1.5921 moderate
As with the rest of the majors, Cable saw a strong rally on the weak US NFP numbers as people price in a possible QE. That said we face a strong rsesistance at 1.6048 with daily stochastic overbought though at risk of coming off 80 while macd is still pointing up. In the lower with frames we have mixed signals in 4H candles while stochastic shows a bearish divergence and macd’s point up. Hourly charts has a confluence of bears with a new crossover in macd. Price charts themseleves has a descending triangle and possible double top. Given the intraday picture the preferred course of action is to look for a break of the 1.5994 minor support for a pullback to possible 1.5921.
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8128 moderate / 0.8161 moderate / 0.8186 minor
Support: 0.8100 minor / 0.8056 minor / 0.8022 minor
We have a large open bozu in daily Kiwi with the very small wick almost qualifying it to a marubozu. Indicators has an overbought stochastic while the daily macd has a bullish crossover as prices pushed past the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have an overbought 4H stochastic with bullish macd while hourly indicators are mixed with stochastic heading up and macd flat below the signal. Note we gapped slightly lower at the open with market already in the process of covering the gap. Given Fridays action over all bias remain bullish look for a break of 0.8128 to signal a run for the 0.8186 starting point of the previous down leg.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2808 moderate / 1.2878 moderate / 1.2934 moderate
Support: 1.2748 moderate / 1.2694 minor / 1.2648 minor
Euro closed at its highs Friday with almost a marubozu for the daily candle with the rally capped only by the 200D SMA, now at 1.2808. Daily indicators has stochastic back in overbought levels while macd has opened up. Note our rally also started off as a bounce from the daily EMA lines Wednesday. In intraday charts we are looking overextended with pullback risks building as momentum thus far has failed to pick up with candles gapping lower at the open. We have 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd is heading up. Hourly indicators has a confluence of bears just pushing oversold in stochastic and macd’s crossing lower. Immediate risk calls for a pullback though with a moderate support at 1.2748 and the daily breakouts we are looking for a buy on dips to the 1.2748 region.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0381 minor / 1.0401 moderate / 1.0431 moderate
Support: 1.0345 moderate / 1.0318 minor / 1.0299 minor
Aussy saw a bullish close from Friday oushing past the daily EMA lines and managing a close above them though failing to remain above 1.0389 the 50 Fib retracement of our sell-off from August 09. Daily indicators are looking bullish with stochastic overbought and the macd’s crossing higher. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in 4H charts with stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd’s pointing up while hourly charts are bearish with stochastic oversold and macd’s crossing lower. Note we opened with bearish gap though little follow through. With Home Loans from Australia at 0130GMT we prefer remaining sidelined thoughj a bad read can be a catalyst for follow through weakness. We are also set to see Chinese Trade figures suggesting we better remain sidelined.
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2012-09-09 20:18:39
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-91012-waiting-for-the-chinese-trade-figures
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