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Asian Session Notes 9/17/12
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6255 moderate / 1.6301 strong / 1.6368 minor
Support: 1.6211 minor / 1.6184 minor / 1.6144 moderate
We have Cable just under the 1.6301 highs of our roller coaster ride for the past year. Daily indicators continue to look bullish with an overbought stochastic and rising macd, though we also have a huge gap between prices and the EMA lines. From the 4H picture we have a topping off in the macd now poised to cross lower while stochastic has come off overbought areas. Price action itself has been lack luster so far though we were pulling back towards the close of New York Friday. In hourly charts we have a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold while the macd is dropping with price charts seeing a descending triangle. Immediate risk calls for getting a pullback started though absent a big catalyst we are unlikely to get a reversal just yet with distribution just around 1.6300 likely for the next few days.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3149 moderate / 1.3167 minor / 1.3211 moderate
Support: 1.3097 minor / 1.3061 moderate / 1.3020 minor
Euro rallied further last Friday to see the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from May 2011, 1.3149. Daily indicators has stochastic still crawling in overbought levels while the macd line is above its signal. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought levels while the macd is still bullish. Hourly charts for their part are inverse with stochastic crossing up even as macd’s now point lower. Given the mixed signals we risk a range play under the 1.3149 region. Fail to push higher early and we risk an actual rejection with any consolidation likely to be seen as distribution. For now look for a break of the 1.3097 support to signal a possible pullback, a close above 1.3149 needs to happen early in the trading day if bulls are to maintain their pace.
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8325 minor / 0.8353 moderate / 0.8377 minor
Support: 0.8289 minor / 0.8238 minor / 0.8185(87) moderate
After an earlier surge Kiwi eventually retreated with the close of the week to see a shooting star / bearish harami at the close. Among daily indicators we are seeing differing signals with stochastic cautiously off the overbought area while macd remains bullish and the gap between EMA lines and prices suggest mean reversion plays. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic oversold and macd just crossing lower. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s dropping though stochastic may be at risk of crossing higher if we fail to see a clear break lower of the current consolidation early on. Immediate risk calls for a break lower of the current consolidation for the 38.2 Fib retracement of our rally from September 5, a possible buy area at 0.8185(87).
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0565 minor / 1.0614 strong / 1.0658 minor
Support: 1.0530 minor / 1.0489 minor / 1.0457 minor
Aussy’s rally briefly pushed past the previous swing highs at 1.0613 only to close Friday with a ‘shooting star’. Daily indicators are now looking mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels while the gap between prices and EMA lines suggests mean reversal pressures though macd’s remain bullish. In intraday charts we are seeing stochastic in oversold levels for both the 4H and hourly picture while the macd in 4H charts has just crossed down and has been bearish for the hourly picture. At the moment we have prices testing the 1.0530 support level. Immediate risk calls for an hourly close under 1.0530 to trigger a pullback possibly down to the 21D EMA’s.
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2012-09-16 22:46:09
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