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Asian Session Notes 9/18/12
AUDJPY
Resistance: 82.28 minor / 82.60 minor / 82.93 minor
Support: 81.96 minor / 81.67 moderate / 81.52 minor
Monday saw a qualified bearish harami in the daily charts for AUDJPY with a long wick in the candlestick while indicators has stochastic coming off overbought areas and macd’s point up. Note we appear to be in mean reversion following our surge late last week. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears with stochastic posied to push oversold while macd has just crossed lower. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears while candlesticks see a long tail for the moment. At this point market is reacting to updates from the Chinese housing market with a drop in the HPI opening the possibility of more stimulus. Note we are also keeping a close eye on BoJ rate checking. As such we prefer looking for a buy on dips to the daily EMA line.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0482 minor / 1.0523 minor / 1.0565 minor
Support: 1.0449 minor / 1.0396 moderate / 1.0363 minor
Following the shooting star Friday we have Aussy easing off yesterday for a technical correction of the rally from the last two weeks. We now have prices nearing its 21D EMA at 1.0417 while other indicators has the daily stochastic heading lower and macd’s topping off. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears from the 4H picture with stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping. Hourly charts for their part also has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold and macd’s dropping. Note we are expecting the minutes of the last RBA meeting at 0130GMT which suggests we remain sidelined until then. Technically we prefer looking for shorts from under 1.0482 or on a break of 1.0449.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6273 minor / 1.6300 strong / 1.6334 minor
Support: 1.6232 minor / 1.6210 minor / 1.6185 minor
We have Cable just under the years highs at 1.6300 from earlier in April, with daily indicators showing a still overbought stochastic and rising macd. Note daily candles show a long wick for a qualified shooting star. In the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence in 4H stochastic given yesterdays new highs while macd’s as well has crossed lower. Price charts themselves show attempts at getting a bear market going. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. The preferred course of action calls for a rejection from the 1.6300 area. Alternatively a close below 1.6232 may also be seen as a bearish entry sparking a correction following a multi week rally, if not a reversal of the prior trend.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3119 minor / 1.3149 strong / 1.3170 minor
Support: 1.3082 minor / 1.3055 minor / 1.3020 minor
After failed attempts to push past 1.3149 38.2 Fib retracement level of Euro’s sell-off from May 2011 we ended up with a spinning top in the daily charts suggesting a loss of momentum beneath a key resistance level. Daily indicators continue to see an overbought stochastic though at risk of coming off 80 while the macd’s remain bullish. Note we have a wide gap between prices and EMA lines underscoring mean reversion risk. From the lower time frames we have sell signals in both 4H and hourly macd and stochastic suggesting immediate risk calls for a break lower and a possible near term top in Euro. Immediate risk calls for a break of 1.3082 the lows from pre-New York trade for a pullback to 1.3020.
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2012-09-18 02:33:40
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-91812
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