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Asian Session Notes 9/21/12
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8304 moderate / 0.8353 minor / 0.8427 moderate
Support: 0.8282 minor / 0.8247 moderate / 0.8215 minor
As with many of the dollar pairs, Kiwi saw a sharp turn-around, of its Asian sell-off, in New York trade to close with a long tail and very small body. Note although the candle looks like a hammer context prevents us from calling it a hammer or a hanging man. From indicators we have daily stochastic looking poised to push overbought while the macd indicators is also pushing higher. In 4H charts we have a confluence of buys as stochastic pushes inside overbought areas while macd has just crossed up. Hourly charts are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd rising. With immediate reistsance rated moderate and charts already overbought we nee da push above 0.8304 early in the day else we risk signalling a rejection towards the open of European markets.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0469 minor / 1.0497 minor / 1.0538 moderate
Support: 1.0426 moderate / 1.0402 moderate / 1.0367 minor
After pushing through the daily EMA lines in an Asian sell-off Aussy managed to bounce up late in New York trade to close back above the 21D EMA with a long tail in the daily candlestick. Indicators show stochastic crossing higher after selling off for the week while macd is still topping out. In intraday charts we have macd’s bottoming out while stochastic is pushing for overbought territory in the 4H level. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic looking to reenter overbought areas while macd is pointing up. Given that our sell-off for the week has already seen the 50 Fib retracement of the rally from September 6, we prefer looking for further attempts to push higher. Look for a buy on dips to the 1.0425 region, 21D EMA, or use a close above 1.0469 as entry point.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6232 moderate / 1.6257 minor / 1.6273 minor
Support: 1.6204 minor / 1.6184 minor / 1.6158 minor
After selling off in Asia Cable saw a bounce in New York trade to end the day with a qualified ‘Hanging Man’ with prices back inside the weeks range play. Daily indicators has stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd’s are also topping off. Note the gap between prices and EMA lines remain suggesting mean reversion risk persists. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals in 4H charts with a lower high and lower pattern while stochastic is pushing for overbought level and macd’s are down. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels and macd’s heading up. Despite the mixed view in intraday charts we still have a moderate immediate resistance level and bearish daily setup. As such we prefer scaling in to the sell-side from 1.6232 with further shorts from either 1.6257 or at the break of 1.6204 for the 1.6158 14.6 Fib retracement of the rally from August 2.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2979 minor / 1.3015 minor / 1.3045 moderate
Support: 1.2936 minor / 1.2915 moderate / 1.2874 minor
Euro saw a big black candle from Thursday though the consolidation in New York trade gave us a significant size tail off the 38.2 Fib at 1.2915. Daily indicators continue to be bearish with stochastic now poised to push oversold while the macd indicators is also poised to cross lower as we look to complete our mean reversion play. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with indecision from both 4H and hourly candles while indicators has 4H stochastic bullish and macd’s dropping and hourly charts with the opposite with macd bullish and stochastic coming off overbought level. Given the big picture and mixed intraday signals we prefer a small sized short off the 1.2978 region for a push to 1.2915 our moderate support 38.2 Fib of the rally from September 5.
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2012-09-21 16:47:08
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-92112
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