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Asian Session Notes 9/28/12
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2928 minor / 1.2959(63) moderate / 1.3000 minor
Support: 1.2908 minor / 1.2891 moderate / 1.2874 minor
Euro saw turn-around in miiday New York trade with daily candlesticks closing back above the 21D EMA suggesting a possible bounce from the EMA lines in daily charts. From indicators we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off oversold levels while macd remains bearish. Note we are just above the 23.6 Fib of our sell-off from September 17. In intraday charts we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture with stochastic pushing overbought and macd’s pointing up while hourly charts are similarly situated. Immediate risks calls for further gains though we have moderate resistances at 1.2959. Look for consolidation or reversal signals from the 1.2959 area, 38.2 Fib of the down swing before considering taking the sell side from the area.
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8323 moderate / 0.8352 minor / 0.8375 minor
Support: 0.8301 minor / 0.8279 minor / 0.8254 minor
Kiwi us just under a moderate resistance and the highs for the range play the past two weeks. This following a bounce off the EMA lines Wednesday and the 38.2 Fib retracement of the rally from September 5. Daily indicators are now showing a bullish stochastic while macd’s remain flat. In intraday charts we have a confluence of buys from the 4H picture with stochastic overbought and macd’s pushing higher. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic bullish and macd’s with a bear cross. At this point immediate risk appears to call for a push past 0.8323 with an hourly close above the said price likely to see the start of an up leg for the years highs.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6243 minor / 1.6267 minor / 1.6300(09) strong
Support: 1.6215 minor / 1.6175 moderate / 1.6137 moderate
Following the midday bounce in US equities we saw Cable pushing back up after a whipsawish trade in Europe to close inside the range of the tight real bodies from the previous week’s range play. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic pushing higher and macd’s dropping. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd is pushing higher. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish though flat macd and a new bullish crossover from stochastic. Note this is the final trading day for the quarter with a rally for much of the past three months and little pullback, cyclical risk suggests position squaring pressure. Look for shorts from at least under 1.6267 preferably off 1.6300(09).
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0441(49) moderate / 1.0462 minor / 1.0511(18) moderate
Support: 1.0425 minor / 1.0386(89) moderate / 1.0364 minor
The daily EMA lines failed to contain the rally following our hammer from Wednesday giving us a big white candlestick with price action suggesting a further rally. At this point we have prices testing the moderate resistance at 1.0441(49) while indicators are mixed from the daily picture with stochastic heading up and macd’s flat. From the lower time frames we have seen a shooting star in 4H charts from New York trade with indicators looking mixed as stochastic tries to come-off overbought levels while macd is rising. Hourly charts has a bullish stochastic and a flat macd. Given the mixed signals we prefer remaining sidelined with a break of 1.0449 still needing a confirming candle for a play. Look for possible shorts coming off the 61.8 Fib at 1.0511(18).
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2012-09-28 10:12:11
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