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Asian Session Note 10/01/12
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8289 minor / 0.8323 moderate / 0.8355 moderate
Support: 0.8264 minor / 0.8222 minor / 0.8184(87) moderate
Unable to hold on to a brief push to 0.8355 we have Kiwi ending friday with a long wick suggesting once more we get a rejection from our congrestion resistances with prices remain between the 0.8184 and 0.8354 range play. From indicators we have mixed signals with a flat macd in the daily picture while stochastic has just crossed lower. In 4H charts we are just around the 20 mark looking to cross up while macd has also just crossed lower. Hourly indicators for their part are mixed with a bullish stochastic and bearish macd. Given this note we are following the patter for the past few weeks with a rejection from congestion resistances likely to see us testing the 0.8184 area. Consider shorts off 0.8323 or on a break of 0.8264.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6125 moderate / 1.6161 moderate / 1.6183 minor
Support: 1.6072 minor / 1.6020 minor / 1.5959 moderate
Following the big sell-off Friday we have Wellington market gapping Cable slightly lower atthe open and seeing a follow through drop with prices now below the 21D EMA. Note we are just getting out of a range play from the daily price action with a top formed by the two week distribution. Among indicators we have daily stochastic pushing oversold while macd is also heading lower. Intraday we have stochastic oversold in both hourly and 4H charts while the macd indicators is also bearish. Overall bias remains bearish though there appears to be little sense of urgency. As such we prefer waiting for the open of European markets before shorting should prices remain just under 1.6125.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0364 minor / 1.0402 moderate / 1.0436 minor
Support: 1.0340 minor / 1.0320(23) moderate / 1.0298 minor
We already have an ongoing follow through sell-off for the Aussy gapping lower at the open and responding to poor Chinese Manufacturing PMI data at 49.8. Indicators has daily stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is bearish, note this is the second attempt by the dailt stochastic to push oversold in the last 5 days. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with an oversold stochastic and new bear cross in macd. Hourly indicators are mixed with stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is bearish. Overall bias calls for further losses in Aussy though given proximity to the 200D SMA, 1.0320(23) we prefer waiting for a beark fo the said price or coming off the 1.0364 region.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2837 minor / 1.2862(63) moderate / 1.2895(00) moderate
Support: 1.2791(92) moderate / 1.2755 strong / 1.2708 moderate
Euro already saw a follow through sell-off from the Wellington market with slight gap lower at the open though we face an immeidate moderate support at 1.2791(92) the 21D EMA and 200D SMA. From indicators we have stochastic pushing oversold while daily MACD is also bearish. In intraday charts we have stochastic oversold from the 4H picture while macd is also bearish. Hourly indicators has stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is dropping. For the moment we dont appear to have a sense of urgency look to cover the gap from the open though given the overall bearish bias we prefer looking shorts from 1.2862(63) the 21D EMA and 38.2 Fib of Fridays sell-off.
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2012-10-01 13:49:18
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-note-100112
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