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Asian Session Notes 10/05/12
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8229 minor / 0.8264 moderate / 0.8290 minor
Support: 0.8207 minor / 0.8184(87) moderate / 0.8165 minor
Kiwi saw another false breakout of the 38.2 Fib 0.8184(87) with yesterdays candlestick eventually turning into a a long legged spinning top. Note we are currently in the process of taking out the immediate resistance at 0.8229, 21D EMA, with daily indicators looking mixed as stochastic crossed up and macd’s still head lower. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic pushing overbought while macd is in the process of crossing up. Hourly charts has a confluence of buys with stochastic just joining the macd up. Immediate risk calls for a follow through to our bounce from 0.8184(87) with a close above 0.8229 as a possible entry though we continue to favor a buy on dips approach with stops under 0.8165.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0291 minor / 1.0325 moderate / 1.0375 minor
Support: 1.0238 moderate / 1.0203 minor / 1.0165 strong
We have Aussy with a high wave spinning top at the close of Thursday bouncing off the critical 1.0165 price point, a weekly double top trigger. From indicators we have a bearish daily macd while stochastic has come-off oversold levels, EMA lines for their part has dead crosses though with the huge gap with prices mean reversion is now a risk. In the lower time frames we have 4H macd’s crossing higher while stochastic is poised to push up. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s pointing up and stochastic also heading higher. Immediate risk for Aussy calls for a bounce to the 1.0325 price point, note any close below 1.0165 should be seens as a trigger for a bear market.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6202 minor / 1.6242 minor / 1.6271 moderate
Support: 1.6169 minor / 1.6125 minor / 1.6095 minor
Cabled rallied back into the congestion for the prior two weeks bouncing off the 34D EMA and pushing pats the 21D EMA. From indicators we have daily stochastic rising from oversold areas though macd remains bearish. With the New York afternoon trade we saw intraday charts turning mixed with 4H indicators still looking bullish stochastic overbought and macd rising while hourly charts for their part has stochastic now poised to push oversold and its macd’s to cross lower. Given the mixed intraday picture we should consider a straddle a close above 1.6202 opening the pair to a further rally into its previous range play while a close under 1.6169 opens the possibility of a pullback to the EMA lines.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3030 moderate / 1.3047 minor / 1.3085 moderate
Support: 1.3004 minor / 1.2970 minor / 1.2943 moderate
Thursday saw a strong rally in Euro pushing to the 61.8 Fib retracement of its sell-off for the prior two weeks at 1.3030. Indicators for their part are showing an overbought daily stochastic and macd’s bottoming out. In the lower timeframes we have 4H stochastic in overbought levels while macd is pushing higher though price action suggests a loss of momentum. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s poised at a bearish crossover while stochastic is heading lower. Given the resistance level and the overbought intraday charts we prefer looking for a rejection from 1.3030 with stops at 1.3050 for 1.2970. Note an hourly close above 1.3030 may signal further gains.
2012-10-05 01:33:52
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-100512
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