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Asian Session Notes 10/15/2012
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8146 moderate / 0.8176 minor / 0.8208 minor
Support: 0.8118 minor / 0.8083 moderate / 0.8044 moderate
At the close we saw a ‘gravestone doji’ in Kiwi suggesting we look for a follow through sell-off this week. Since the open of Wellington markets we have seen Kiwi gap up only to sell-off with prices for the moment seeing a pullback testing its immediate moderate resistance at 0.8146. We have daily stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is heading down. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic oversold and macd just crossing lower though the candle risks turning into a hammer. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic crossing up and macd bearish. Note we are trying to get a bearish break out in daily charts for kiwi a close below 0.8146 on a daily basis should signal a further sell-off in the coming days.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2913 moderate / 1.2952 minor / 1.2992 moderate
Support: 1.2876 minor / 1.2833 minor / 1.2803 minor
We have Euro immediately selling off following a strong open against the US dollar with market looking for a follow through to the rejection from the 50 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from September 17 highs. Among indicators we have macd’s heading lower while stochastic is at risk of crossing lower for it part. Note we have EURUSD just easing under its 21D EMA. In the 4H picture we have stochastic poised to push oversold while the macd for its part is near crossing lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic oversold while macd is heading lower. Given the extent of decline already seen for the day we prefer looking for a sell on rallies to the 1.2913 and 1.2955 price points.
AUDJPY
Resistance: 80.42 minor / 80.74(80) moderate / 81.24 moderate
Support: 79.99 minor / 79.63 strong / 79.30 minor
Friday saw AUDJPY rejected from the 38.2 Fib retracement level with the move also looking like a rejection from bearish daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have daily macd’s flat with the numbers roughly the same for signal and main line, while stochastic has just crossed lower. From the 4H picture we have macd’s with a new bear cross while stochastic is in the process of crossing lower as well. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic heading for oversold areas while macd is down. Given the signals we prefer taking the sell side of AUDJPY though this should be from just under 80.74, at least well inside the days range. Note we have Chinese CPI data out at 0130GMT with consensus forecast at 1.9% year-on-year. A weak read in the CPI figures may be argument for seeing AUDJPY rallying.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6055 moderate / 1.6094 minor / 1.6123 minor
Support: 1.6024 minor / 1.5991 minor / 1.5959 moderate
After getting rejected from the 21D EMA we have Cable selling off in New York trade then seeing a follow through drop with the open of Wellington MArkets for the week. Among indicators we continue to see mixed signals as stochastic is pointing up while macd is heading lower, we appear to be heading for the 55D EMA 1.6003 as market oscillate between the EMA lines. Note we have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows with Friday possibly the latest lower high. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic heading lower while macd begins to top off. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic in oversold levels while macd is also bearish. Given the drop we have already seen we prefer shorting only off your 1.6055 moderate resistance area.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0216 minor / 1.0254 moderate / 1.0288 minor
Support: 1.0183 minor / 1.0148 strong / 1.0121 minor
Surprisingly we had a bullish gap at the open for the Aussy though subsequent action has seen AUDUSD sell-off now under the Friday lows. Note we have tweezer tops from the daily candles as Friday saw a rejection from the 21D EMA the previous days highs. Among indicators we have daily stochastic crossing lower while the macd line is just under its signal line. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of sell signals in both 4H and hourly charts with stochastic oversold on the former and poised to ease under 20 on the latter. Macd for its part is heading lower. Given the extent of our sel-off at this point we prefer shorting only from atleast under under 1.0216 with new lows a poor entry considering we are near average daily ranges already. Ultimately we are looking for a test possibly a push under the key support at 1.0148 early in the week.
2012-10-15 00:24:28
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-10152012
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