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Asian Session Notes 4/29/13
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3069 minor / 1.3093 moderate / 1.3128 moderate
Support: 1.3045 minor / 1.3020 moderate / 1.2989 moderate
Euro started the week with a bullish gap although context seems to be the prior weeks indecisive market. Note we started off just under the daily R1 in pivot then quickly pushed the through moving up of even the 55D EMA though we do not appear to have momentum. Daily indicators has a bullish stochastic while macd is flat. In intraday charts we are seeing a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought in the 4H level with macd also looking to cross back above the zero line. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd though stochastic is having trouble pushing for overbought levels. Recall that mondays normally see Wellington dealers gapping prices at the moment with the move reversed once liquidity comes in from Japan, though markets will be close in Japan today suggesting caution for standard fading of the monday break out.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5500 psychological / 1.5554 minor / 1.5627 moderate
Support: 1.5466 minor / 1.5422 moderate / 1.5378 moderate
Cable saw a smaller rally Friday, compared to the big follow through bounce in the prior trading day. We appear set to continue the pattern of higher lows and higher highs. From the indicators we have stochastic just pushing into overbought levels while macd is also pointing higher. We are just between the daily pivot and R1. In the lower time frames we have a stochastic oscillating around the 80 area with macd appears to have topped off in the 4H picture as our bullish trend loses momentum. Hourly charts has macd’s dropping while stochastic is indecisive technically bullish. For now the lack of momentum suggests we ought to remain sidelined though a break of 1.5466 opens cable to a pullback to the moderate support of 1.5422, 38.2 Fib of the sell-off for the year.
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8500 psychological / 0.8535 moderate / 0.8563 minor
Support: 0.8479 moderate / 0.8460 minor / 0.8437 moderate
Kiwi saw long wicks from the daily charts both Thursday and Friday opening the possibility of a bear market. Daily indicators has a confluence of bears with stochastic crossing lower and macd’s at risk of a bullish cross having bottomed out. Note we still have prices above generally flat though bullish daily EMA lines. For now we find prices marginally above the daily pivot. In the lower time-frames we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is bearish. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to push overbought and macd bottoming out. For now we prefer remaining sidelined with arguments for both sides of the market. Consider a straddle, buy stops above the 0.8500 psychological resistance and sell-stops on a break of 0.8479.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0290 minor / 1.0334 moderate / 1.0358 minor
Support: 1.0267 minor / 1.0250 minor / 1.0215(20) moderate
Aussy was unable to hold on to gains in two days in a row with lower highs from Thursday and Friday and a rejection off the daily EMA lines. It appears that attempts at a daily turn-around may be over. Indicators are mixed despite the bearish EMA lines with their dead crosses we have macd bottoming out below the signal line while stochastic is pointing up. Intraday we have mixed signals with a bullish cross in stochastic while macd is dropping fro the 4H picture while hourly charts has a confluence of buys. Immediate risk calls for a bear market a close under 1.0267 opening the way for a drop to the swing lows at 1.0220. Alternative entry will be on a false run for the topside with shorts from just under the 21D EMA.
USDJPY
Resistance: 98.10 minor / 98.31 minor / 98.54 moderate
Support: 97.56 minor / 97.31 minor / 96.74 moderate
Friday saw a sharp sell-off in USDJPY as markets went risk averse on US data and were disappointed from the lack of insight in the BoJ’s QE program with a mere reiteration of prior statements. Among indicators we have a confluence of bears wurg stochastic now poised to push oversold as macd’s open down some more. Note we now have a clear double top in the making. From the lower time frames we have mixed signals as 4H macd drops and stochastic as the brink of a bullish cross. Hourly charts for their part has mixed signals with stochastic dropping and macd crossing higher. Note we have a double bottom from hourly candlesticks. Given the big picture we prefer completing the double top look for a rejection off off 98.54 or a close under 97.56 to get the pattern going.
EURJPY
Resistance: 127.75 moderate / 128.46 minor / 128.80 minor
Support: 127.13 minor / 126.80 moderate / 126.00 strong
At the close we have EURJPY under the 21D EMA friday fully forming the 2nd top of a daily scale double top pattern. Daily indicators show stochastic in oversold levels while macd is dropping as we look for follow through weakness to the Friday close. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with macd dropping and stochastic heading up for the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part also look mixed with macd pointing up and stochastic heading lower. With the mixed signals among intraday indicators we prefer remaining sidelined though bias calls for further losses while under the 21D EMA, a moderate resistance at 127.75. Note we are not looking to trigger the bearish reversal pattern but for at least a pullback to the strong support at 125.99.
AUDJPY
Resistance: 100.82 minor / 101.08 minor / 101.48 moderate
Support: 100.47 minor / 100.00 psychological / 99.60 moderate
Aussy Yen saw a further sell-off Friday closing under the 34D EMA and dragging indicators to oversold levels for stochastic and a bearish macd. In intraday charts we have a mixed signals with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd is dropping. Hourly charts for their part has a bullish macd and stochastic trying to bottom out. For now we see another straddle trade given the asbence of confluence in intraday charts though preference would be to trigger a sell trade under 100.47 with the psychologicsl price point 100.00 as the immediate objective. A close above 100.82 amy also be sued as a bullsih entry. though upside should be limited to the 21D EMA.
2013-04-28 22:32:00
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-42913
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