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A host of GDP data out today. How will the Eurozone fair? (Alistair Ryan)
It’s been a busy morning in the Eurozone so far and there are a lot more data releases set to rock the Euro coming out later on. Early this morning we saw France enter in to a recession with their economy shrinking by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2013, the same figure as the last quarter of 2012. A recession occurs after 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. This was shortly followed by German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. This data release for the Eurozone’s largest economy came out at 0.1% growth for the first quarter. This may have shown growth for the German economy but will still be seen as negative as it was expected that the economy would grow by 0.3%. Though we have seen some slight weakness this doesn’t seem to have had a major effect on EUR rates but there is more to come today.
We will also find out the GDP figures for Italy and Portugal today and at 10:00am we have arguably the biggest announcement of them all, Eurozone GDP figures. It is expected that this will come out at -0.1%, meaning a decline across the whole Eurozone economy. I personally think we may see this announcement come out slightly worse than expected and if so we could see a bout of Euro weakness off the back of this. With all of the data across the Eurozone coming out today and none of it seeming too positive I feel as though -0.1% is only a very small amount for the Eurozone economy to shrink for an economy that is obviously struggling a great deal. If this announcement doesn’t come out as expected, whether it be better or worse, then I would expect to see a lot of movement with regards to EUR rates.
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Source: http://www.eurorateforecast.com/2013/05/15/a-host-of-gdp-data-out-today-how-will-the-eurozone-fair-alistair-ryan/
