| Story Views | |
| Now: | |
| Last Hour: | |
| Last 24 Hours: | |
| Total: | |
Asian Session Notes 5/06/13: Waiting for Australian Retail Sales
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0323 moderate / 1.0344 minor / 1.0365 minor
Support: 1.292 moderate / 1.0262 minor / 1.0243 minor
Aussy saw a sharp rally following the better than expected NFP numbers with commodity currencies in general gaining on expected benefits for their external trade. From the open we have Wellington dealers gapping prices down from the 61.8 Fib retracement of the two drop from Wednesday. Daily indicators has a bullish divergence out of stochastic while macd is above its signal. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of buys with an overbought stochastic and rising macd while hourly stochastic has just pushed oversold and the macd is at risk of a bear cross. Typically gaps by the Wellington market gets filled in the Asian morning trade, though we have a holiday in Japan and data to watch out for from Australia. At 0130GMT we have March Retail Sales with consensus forecast at 0.2%, a strong read should help push prices through the immediate moderate resistance, while contraction may take us under the daily pivot, 1.0292.
AUDCAD
Resistance: 1.0391 minor / 1.0415 minor / 1.0435 moderate
Support: 1.0367 moderate / 1.0346 minor / 1.0323 minor
Friday saw a push higher in AUDCAD despite both the Aussy and Loonie gaining ground on the greenback. With the hammer from Thursday and a big gap between prices and EMA lines before then, we appear to have a mean reversion in the works. Among indicators we have daily stochastic coming out of oversold areas while the macd is still heading lower. Note we also have dead cross from the EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with a bearish divergence in stochastic and macd’s rising at the 4H level. Hourly charts see more mixed signals with stochastic pushing from under the 20 mark while macd is heading lower. As with most of the Aussy we prefer waiting for Australian Retail Sales before taking action particularly with the mixed signals we are getting. Note we have already seen the target of the daily double top breakout from April 25.
AUDJPY
Resistance: 1.0279(86) moderate / 103.51 minor / 104.05 minor
Support: 102.05(07) moderate / 101.59 moderate / 101.12 minor
AUDJPY closed around its highs Friday on a combination of strong equities leading to a weaker yen and strong NFP leading to stronger commodity currencies. Our push saw prices following through its bounce from the 55D EMA Thursday with a break of the 34D and 32D EMA’s seeing prices just above the 50 Fib level of our drop from April 11 highs. Daily indicators has macd bottoming out poised for a bullish cross while stochastic is looking to push overbought. Intraday we are forming a flag from the 4H picture while indicators show a confluence of buys, stochastic already overbought. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic just crossing up while macd is also in the process of seeing a bear cross. For now it would be best to remain sidelined though a strong read in Australian Retail Sales at 0130 GMT will be an excuse for a bullish breakout, possible entry just above 102.33, Fridays highs. A contraction would be a good excuse for a pullback and shorting.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3162(70) moderate / 1.3200 minor / 1.3242 minor
Support: 1.3101 moderate / 1.3053(66) moderate / 1.3032 minor
After a knee-jerk drop following the strong NFP we have Euro bouncing with the open of US equities on risk appetite trade to see a daily candle coming off EMA lines. Indicators wise we have a bearish bias as stochastic points lower while the macd is flat above the signal line, we need a close below the daily EMA’s to follow through on the evening star in daily candlesticks. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in the making as 4H stochastic tries to cross down while macd is flat below the signal, price action for its part has been indecisives even before the NFP release. Hourly indicators are mixed as stochastic crosses lower and macd’s are rising. Given these we prefer to remain sidelined waiting for the Eurozone Retail Sales figures where a poor read should see us taking out the daily EMA lines.
USDJPY
Resistance: 99.26 moderate / 99.60 minor / 99.94(00) psychological
Support: 98.91 minor / 98.54 moderate / 98.20 moderate
USDJPY saw a push back up above the bullish daily EMA lines Friday, following through its turn-around Thursday in response to NFP data from the US. Indicators has daily stochastic pushing for overbought levels just managing to cross the threshold while macd has also bottomed out though we still have a lower highs pattern in the broad range play for the past month. In 4H charts we see a confluence of buys with stochastic crawling overbought while macd is rising, we may have flag pattern in the making. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic poised to cross lower while macd already has a bear cross. Given the holidays in Japan and the UK we prefer remaining sidelined though a close above 99.26 may be seen as a bullish entry.
EURJPY
Resistance: 130.32 minor / 130.66 minor / 131.12 moderate
Support: 129.90 moderate / 129.35(88) moderate / 128.92 moderate
With the NFP driven equity rally, EURJPY also managed to shoot up Friday, to close just under the days highs, retaining much of our bounce off the 21D EMA. Among indicators we have an overbought daily stochastic while macd is looking to cross higher, though we still need to break the pattern of lower highs before we can be confident of the upside. In the lower time frames we have a confluence in 4H charts with macd’s rising and stochastic overbought, once again we have a yen pair with flags forming. From the hourly we are seeing mixed signals with macd in the process of crossing lower while stochastic is heading up. For now we are looking for the next catalyst for further gains though the immediate support at 129.90 could be used as a bounce off point when European market open.
GBPJPY
Resistance: 154.68 minor / 155.00 psychological / 155.17 moderate
Support: 154.01 minor / 153.52 moderate / 153.04 minor
The rally in GBPJPY Friday pushed us past 154.00 taking out the ceiling of our range play for the past month. With the weekly close also turning out bullish we are adopting a bias for a run to the 155.00 psychological price point. Daily indicators has stochastic overbought and macd with a new bullish cross, with prices above its breakout point this suggests we look for a follow through rally. From the 4H picture we have stochastic overbought and macd on the rise. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic pushing overbought and macd a new bear cross though lacking slope. As with most Yen pairs we have a flag in intraday charts though we prefer a buy on dips for an entry. Consider longs from 153.52 previous key resistance or just above 154.01 by the time European markets open. Given proximity to 155.00 we prefer skipping on the immediate bullish breakout.
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-50613-waiting-for-australian-retail-sales
