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Asian Session Notes 5/13/13: Waiting for Australian and Chinese Data
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8317 moderate / 0.8350 moderate / 0.8384 minor
Support: 0.8269(72) strong / 0.8235 moderate / 0.8209 minor
Kiwi saw a huge sell-off Friday pushing near to twice its average daily range. At the close we have Kiwi bouncing slight off the days lows and strong support of 0.8269. Indicators show stochastic pushing into oversold levels while macd is also heading lower and now under the zero line. Prices for the moment are below the daily pivot even as we see a big gap between prices and the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals as stochastic comes off oversold levels while macd is dropping. Hourly charts are also indecisive with stochastic this tome around heading lower and macd just seeing a bullish cross. At this point we appear to be building a base from intraday price action, given the strength of our support this could turn into a bullish pullback play by the time European markets open. A close under 0.8269 in hourly charts is an immediate sell.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0025 moderate / 1.0072 minor / 1.0107 minor
Support: 0.9980 strong / 0.9958 moderate / 0.9934 moderate
Friday saw Aussy dipping below parity in the heat of the moment though hourly tweezers eventually saw prices bounce back up. From the daily charts we have a hammer for Friday’s close the bounce coming 61.8 Fib retracement of the rally from 2012 lows of 0.95816. At the moment we find ourselves under the daily pivot with bearish daily signals as macd’s drop and stochastic remain flat below 20. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals from the 4H picture as macd’s bottom out and stochastic come off oversold levels. Hourly charts as well are mixed with stochastic heading lower while macd’s rise. Typical for a monday we have a gap at the open though with considerable support from parity to under we prefer adopting a buy on dips stance. For now look for base building above 0.9980 to give us a bounce off point for Aussy going forward. An hourly close below 0.9958 opens the pair to a big bear market. Note we do have possible market movers at 0130GMT.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2992 moderate / 1.3021 minor / 1.3051 moderate
Support: 1.2952 minor / 1.2935 moderate / 1.2900 minor
We saw prices testing the floor of our broadening pattern in EURUSD daily charts though prices saw a bounce from New York to end up with a long tail in daily charts. Among indicators we have dead crosses starting to form in daily EMA;s though we also see a big gap between EMA and prices opening the risk of mean reversion. Daily macd’s are now poised to push under the zero line while stochastic has just gone oversold and markets opened with a bearish gap. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with 4H stochastic just coming off oversold levels while macd remains bearish. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s with a bullish cross while stochastic is poised to push oversold. Given the exhaustive gap from the open, we prefer looking for a cover and used the daily pivot for a possible bearish entry inline with the overall bearish tone from the big picture. Note broadening patterns are slow reversal signals.
USDJPY
Resistance: 102.13 moderate / 102.68 minor / 102.38 minor
Support: 101.72 minor / 101.43 moderate / 101.15 minor
We are current seeing a follow through rally to the strong close from last week in USDJPY with the G7 meeting over the weekend failing to see criticism of the Japanese reflation efforts. At the open we have a bullish gap already pushing past the highs from Friday while daily indicators show stochastic at overbought levels and macd’s also on the rise. Note this started with a bounce from the daily EMA lines. In 4H charts we have stochastic oscillating around the 80 level, for now below it while macd is on the rise. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of buys in the making with stochastic poised to push overbought along with the macd indicator. Immediate risk calls for a push past R1 at 102.13 to signal follow through rally. Alternatively we could use the daily pivot at 101.43 as a bounce off point.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5376 moderate / 1.5411 minor / 1.5457 moderate
Support: 1.5330 minor / 1.5297 moderate / 1.5245 minor
Friday saw a follow through sell-off in Cable with the weekly close at our channel support line from the March 12 lows. At the open we have GBPUSD now under the bullish channel also the previous the daily EMA supports. Daily indicators has stochastic in oversold territory while macd is heading down, prices are below the pivot. From the 4H picture we have macd heading down and stochastic at risk of a bear cross. Hourly charts for their part are mixed with stochastic dropping and macd heading up. For now with prices just below the daily pivot and a break of a bullish channel support, we prefer focusing on getting further weakness. Consider shorts from just under the pivot at 1.5376. Our object over the next few days will be to get to the 1.5200 level.
USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0125 minor / 1.0153 moderate / 1.0180 moderate
Support: 1.0095 moderate / 1.0058 moderate / 1.0013 moderate
Friday saw USDCAD with a long wick, getting rejected from the daily EMA lines and 50 Fib retracement level of our drop from April 17. Indicators has daily macd with a new bullish cross while stochastic is also heading up. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with the 4H price action showing a half mast even as macd is heading up and stochastic poised at a bullish crossover. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s technically bearish while stochastic is also at risk of a bear cross. For now though we prefer remaining sidelined with any strategy here likely involving a straddle with buys above 101.25 and shorts under 1.0095.
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-51313-waiting-for-australian-and-chinese-data
