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AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0264 moderate / 1.0284 moderate / 1.0306 minor
Support: 1.0244 minor / 1.0220 moderate / 1.0200 minor
Yesterday saw Aussy with its lows at 1.0221 making a ‘tweezer bottom’ with the candlestick from March 23. We appear poised to see a long tail in the Thursday candle bouncing off just above the 78.6 Fib 1.0215. Indicators wise we have stochastic heading lower, macd’s at risk of a bear cross and a rejection from the daily EMA lines. From the lower time frames we see mixed signals with stochastic pushing up in 4H charts and a hammer to boot while macd is bearish. Hourly charts has stochastic poised to cross up and macd also pointing higher. Price charts themselves have either a double bottom or cup and handle in the hourly level. Immediate calls for Aussy bouncing though we need a close above 1.0264 before taking action. Bears are better off waiting for 1.0215(20) to give way eliminating the tweezer bottom scenario. Note we have the Australian Services Index set for release at 2330GMT.
AUDJPY
Resistance: 100.90 minor / 101.53 moderate / 102.02 moderate
Support: 100.30 moderate / 99.75 minor / 99.28 moderate
Wednesday’s bearish trend line breakout saw a reversal in yesterday’s trade with the daily candlesticks now showing a piercing patterns as earlier attempts at a follow through bear market failed to push under the 99.28 23.6 Fib level for the rally from October 2012. At the moment we have prices stuck between the daily EMA’s with 55D as a bounce off point while indicators show stochastic oscillating just above 20 and macd’s bearish. In the lower timeframes we have a confluence of buys with stochastic poised to push overbought and macd’s crossing up. Hourly charts has stochastic coming off oversold areas and a rising macd. Immediate risk is for further gains, consider buys off 100.30 or on a close above 100.90. Note though we have Aussy data at 2330GMT which could alter the current sentiment.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3076 minor / 1.3113 moderate / 1.3159 minor
Support: 1.3036 minor / 1.2995 minor / 1.2995 moderate
We have the ECB finally managing to use German economic figures and low inflation as an excuse to cut rates once more after a long pause from the initial moves of Mario Draghi when he replaced Jean-Claude Trichet the past year. Thursday’s drop saw twice the average daily range with prices now just above the daily EMA lines, following through a shooting star in daily charts. Indicators has stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is topping off. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic oversold though price action suggests lost momentum as we wait for an excuse to push under the daily EMA lines. Hourly charts has abearish technical bias with stochastic below the signal as well as the macd line though lacking slope. Note with NFP releases later we may have some unwinding of shorts going to the European morning trade. Overall though this could be a win-win situation for the greenback as we argue either risk aversion or better economic conditions for the US.
EURGBP
Resistance: 0.8425 minor / 0.8467 minor / 0.8489 moderate
Support: 0.8397 minor / 0.8362 moderate / 0.8318 minor
EURGBP is at a critical point a day after the ECB’s decision to resume its easing cycle. We have prices just around the key 0.8411 price point, 38.2 Fib retracement level of our rally from July 22. Among indicators we have macd’s heading lower and stochastic poised to cross lower as well, with daily candlesticks showing a rejection from bearish EMA lines. Intraday we have a confluence of bears in 4H charts with stochastic pushing oversold while hourly charts are looking mixed as stochastic comes off oversold levels though macd is under the signal line. At this point what matters for the market will be the weekly close. Star under 0.8411, see a further drop and you trigger a descending triangle, follow through a rejection from a weekly bear channel, essentially have a large scale technical breakout. For now look for follow through weakness as interest rates between the UK and the Eurozone possibly reverse in spreads going forward with the UK at an advantage.
USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0122 moderate / 1.0152 minor / 1.0176 minor
Support: 1.0088 moderate / 1.0050 moderate / 1.0024 minor
USDCAD managed to rally thursday for a ‘three inside up pattern’ among the candlesticks suggesting further gains perhaps up to the daily EMA lines. From indicators we have stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd’s are heading lower and the EMA’s line are starting to see dead crosses. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys in hourly and 4H indicators. Stochastic is overbought in both time frames while macd is also rising. Immediate risk calls for further gains though we see the move as mean reversal with a rejection off the EMA lines expected. For now consider buys for a rally towards the 1.0170′s.
EURJPY
Resistance: 128.41 minor / 128.92 moderate / 129.90 moderate
Support: 127.85 minor / 127.49 minor / 127.13 moderate
EURJPY saw a long wick in the end as earlier gains on the rally of equity markets following the ECB rate cut proved unsustainable as the rest of the Euro pairs sold off. We find prices closing where they started, thursday with the daily EMA lines as our immediate support. From indicators we have macd’s heading lower and stochastic with bearish crosses. In intraday charts we are seeing mixed signals with macd at the brink of a bear cross while stochastic is poised to push oversold. Hourly charts for their part has macd bottoming out and stochastic poised to push into overbought levels. Note we also have lower highs in EURJPY suggesting that we have bearish interest. For now though we prefer remaining sideline ahead of they US jobs numbers, with weak results likely to see a bearish break. A close below 127.85 may be viewed as a short for a test of the congestion lows at 127.13, 34D EMA.
2013-05-02 18:46:06
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-5313-waiting-for-the-us-jobs-numbers