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GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD exchange rate forecasts. Get help to maximise your currency exchange (Michael Vaughan)
As expected the Bank of England (BofE) decided to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5% and decided against extending its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme.
This outcome was very much forecast and the market did very little as a result as many analysts expect little to come from the BofE until new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July. Following the release the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) released its forecast for GDP for the last three months to include April, the figures showed a stronger than expected level of 0.8% continuing the recent positive tones coming from the UK, something that could lead to sterling strength against a number of major currencies.
GBP/EUR
Sterling exchange rates have shown a marked improvement against the single currency since the year low of 1.1370 in March. Since this time the market has peaked at 1.19 (a shift of 4.5%) but has now remained range bound between 1.1750-1.1850 since the start of May. But what now for GBP/EUR?
For me I believe the pound will begin to find further support and may break through the 1.20 barrier heading into June, however I believe when Mr Carney takes over his reign as the head of the Central Bank then I believe he will look to impose himself immediately and look to extend QE to help boost the UK economy further. Should we see this then I would expect Sterling exchange rates to fall back towards the 1.18 territory as a result. For this reason anyone looking to buy Euros I feel you may get better value in the weeks to come but those selling may wish to consider their options.
GBP/USD Exchange Rates
As against the Euro, sterling has seen a mini-recovery against the greenback rallying from the year low of 1.489 in March to 1.559 earlier this week. This again represents a 4.5% shift in less than two months and to me represents a strong buy opportunity.
For me I feel GBP/USD is reaching a peak and would expect levels to fall back towards the 1.52/53 level as again the pound is likely to come under threat from future expectations regarding QE. I also feel it is a matter of time before problems in Europe re-surface and the major benefactor is likely to be the USD.
For those looking at GBP/USD in the coming days watch out for a speech from Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Ben Bernanke this afternoon at 13:30 – positive tones from Bernanke are likely to lend support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Has the Aussie bubble burst?
In the last month the pound has rallied close to 9 cents against the AUD following weaker sentiment from China, and the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates earlier this week. This is creating some great opportunities for AUD buyers a trend that may continue.
For anyone selling AUD I would still urge you to take advantage of rates that are historically still very favourable. The average trade price for GBP/AUD for the last year sits around 1.54, so with levels currently at 1.52 you are still ahead of the game. For me the current trend and sentiment from Australia is a concern and I would expect rates to move towards 1.55 as I feel the central bank is still concerned about the strength of the Aussie and the impact this is having on the value of Australian exports. I would not be surprised to see another interest rate cut within the next 3 months, something that could devalue the AUD further.
Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) at [email protected]
Source: http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/2013/05/09/gbpeur-gbpusd-gbpaud-exchange-rate-forcasts-get-help-to-maximise-your-currency-exchange-michael-vaughan/
