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Exchange Rate Forecast – GBP USD EUR – When to BUY or SELL? ( Andrew Bromley )
US Retail Sales dominated the currency market movements today, coming in again lower than expected. Generally speaking the rates have been poor for the entirety of 2015, as bad weather on the East Coast hampered shoppers desire to head downtown to Macey’s! The general overview for the Dollar is in line with the Interest Rate outlook. We may get further indication tomorrow at 7pm when the Federal Reserve releases its ‘Beige Book’. The Beige Book is a collection of essentially market sentiment from all Fed members, with some being a lot more ‘bullish’ (positive) than others. The key to the recent USD strength is on the back of Fed member ‘Lacker’s’ comments, as he feels that the economy could support an Interest Rate increase in June / July. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either another Fed member, or the Fed Chair Janet Yellen make a statement to the contrary. This could push GBP USD exchange rates up to the 1.49s – what I feel is the top of the current trading range. I feel that the next key limit for GBP-USD is 1.45 which is achievable with further positive market commentary.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Sterling holders are selling their positions quickly as the impending UK General Election will bring weakness. The overwhelming expectation is for Pound weakness as realistically we will see a ‘hung parliament’. This situation of no majority government is bad news for the UK with the pound likely to suffer. If I were buying a currency with Sterling I’d be moving sooner rather than later!
The Eurozone are STILL trying to sort out the Greek debt, with the proposal now for an amendment to the bailout. The Greek government are looking to repay the IMF (International Monetary Fund) loans as they are expensive, and then renegotiate the loans from the Eurozone. The Eurozone loans are at high rates of exchange as they were agreed at a period of more prosperity. Bringing the interest rates in line could provide a monumental cut to payments. Greece is the key factor for the Euro staying so weak – realistically EUR should have moved back closer to 1.30 as the UK goes in to Election mode. It is worth also paying attention to any announcements from the Swiss. In January we saw the largest peacetime currency move (for Major currencies), when the CHF-EUR trading peg was abolished. The Swiss National Bank have hinted at yet further change to policy – Euro sellers should pay particular note!!
If you have an exchange requirement, please feel free to get in touch. I can assist you in achieving award winning exchange rates, but also making available facilities to ‘forward buy’ your currency. For just a small deposit you can secure your entire exchange, helping large currency exchanges (e.g. house purchase) much easier to budget.
Andrew Bromley
01494 787 478
Source: http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/2015/04/14/exchange-rate-forecast-gbp-usd-eur-when-to-buy-or-sell-andrew-bromley/
