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Today the pound has made substantial gains against the euro due to yesterday’s press conference by President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. Draghi addressed the asset-purchasing programme (Q.E) by explaining the governing council is ready and able to act by using all the instruments available. In simple terms they will increase the amount of quantitative easing if necessary. Further to this he confirmed the monetary policy committee would be examining the programme in December.
I’m in no doubt the announcement is going to have a major impact on euro exchange rates throughout November and December, similar to what we have seen throughout today’s trading. If Q.E is raised we could see the best levels for buying Euros since the recession in 2008. However I expect the market has already started to price in the possibility of an increased Q.E programme therefore if it doesn’t occur in December I expect GBP/EUR could plummet back towards the lower 1.30s.
Tomorrow morning the Bank of England will be simultaneously releasing their latest interest rate decision, the minutes of that policy meeting, the quarterly inflation report followed by a press conference by Mark Carney. It does seem to be the question of when will the BoE raise interest rates instead of will they raise rates, however with the current mixed views from MPC members, a rate hike in the foreseeable future certainly looks unlikely.
Of late the interest rate decision has been a non- event as the vote has been split 8-1 in favour of keeping interest rates at 0.5%. With the latest GDP figures dropping to 0.5% from 0.7%, due to the Manufacturing and Construction industries entering their worse run in three years, I am in no doubt the vote will stay at 8-1 or even 9-0, and therefore sterling exchange rates could start to slide. Further to this the quarterly inflation report is the key piece of data to look out for and this piece of data could set the trend for sterling exchange rates throughout November. Consumer Price Index numbers (Inflation) dented the pounds purchasing power throughout October as the (mom) figure was released at -0.1% down from 0.2 %.
I strongly recommend that anyone with a foriegn currency to buy before the end of the year should contact me on directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception for Dayle Littlejohn. Together over the phone we will discuss and devise a strategy for your transfer and maximise your return.
If you have an upcoming currency transfer and I have not covered your currency pair that you are looking to trade (GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, etc). Feel free to email me with the currency pair and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice etc) and I will personally respond to you with a forecast and the buying process. [email protected] Dayle Littlejohn