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Parliament passes Brexit Bill (Daniel Johnson)

Tuesday, March 14, 2017 2:09
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(Before It's News)

Article 50 ready to be triggered

Parliament passed the exit bill yesterday, the bill is now to receive royal assent which should be a formality and then Theresa May will be in a position to trigger Article 50. Which could be done as early as today.

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister has potentially thrown a spanner in the works for article 50 to be invoked by calling for a Scottish referendum. Sturgeon has called for a vote between late 2018 and Spring the following year. We saw Sterling strengthen against the Euro when news filtered through amendments were not be made to the bill, but then weaken following Sturgeons announcement.

I would be surprised to see article 50 invoked this week following Sturgeons announcement and also due the Dutch elections commencing tomorrow.

Potential Outcomes of the Invocation of Article 50

  • Subdued market movement. The market has factored in the triggering of Article 50 and as a result there is little market movement.
  • Sterling falls sharply, with trade negotiations still in Limbo and high levels of uncertainty the Pound falls.
  • Investors gain confidence knowing trade negotiations will commence and and more clarity is returned to the markets.

Dutch Elections have potential to significantly weaken the Euro

Geert Wilders, the leader of the far-right party of Freedom has the strong possibility of winning the Dutch general election due to commence tomorrow. He has stated his intention to close mosques, ban the Koran and leave the EU. His popularity has been increased by the troubles between the Turkish and the Dutch following the decision that Dutch Turks will not be allowed to protest on constitutional change.

It will be difficult for Wilders to gain power upon winning however as there is the strong possibility he will have to form a coalition, which could prove difficult due to his far-right stance.

If he does gain power a referendum is on the cards and I would expect substantial Euro weakness.

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