EU Referendum polls v odds: How the UK chose Brexit
When the country woke up on Friday June 24th many people had to double check what they were hearing on the radio or seeing on the TV. Contrary to most predictions which had anticipated the narrowest of victories for the Remain camp this had been turned on its head and now, it seems, the UK is set to leave the European Union.
While the opinion polls had got it wrong this was by no means and unprecedented event. We only had to look back to May 2015’s general election result when, against all predictions, the Conservative Party won their first overall parliamentary majority for many years and the Liberal Democrats were all-but obliterated. But what was so surprising was just how wrong the bookmakers got it too. Right up until the day of the referendum all were offering odds-on that we would stay in the EU with odds of around 3/1 that the Brexit camp would win. It’s not often that bookies get such a simple two way bet so wrong, but they were certainly not the only ones.
Where many observers feel that almost everyone made a major miscalculation was in the assumption that generally the British public prefer to maintain the status quo whenever possible. Perhaps that’s a reflection of what’s seen as the British sense of reserve and conservatism with a small “c” and the perceived apathy that means in most votes there is generally a fairly low turnout.
The fact that even Nigel Farage, one of the most vociferous of the “out” campaigners, was saying right up until the first results came in that he believed the Remain camp would win spoke volumes.
In the many post mortems that are taking place in all of the major political parties the way in which the respective campaigns were run must also be a major area of focus. Very soon after each had begun the tone became adversarial rather than informative with the two sides seeming keener to abuse and score points off each other than they were to get their own reasons across. Perhaps the lowest point in all this arrived with the In versus Out flotillas that met on the Thames outside the Houses of Parliament.
Many commentators have also pointed out that the Brexit campaign relied far more strongly on facts ( though some have also been hotly disputed) while the Remain campaign’s focus was far more directed towards warning about what might happen if we did decide to leave – which earned it the nickname Project Fear.
To some, this may seem a little unfair because fear tactics also played a role in the Brexit campaign, most notably about the flood of immigration that the UK would face unless it left the EU – and this certainly seems to be the deciding factor that won over many voters who put their crosses in the “Leave” box.
So now, we’re left with the aftermath. It’s likely that both main parties will have new leaders by the autumn and negotiations will soon be under way to arrange our exit from the EU. Let’s all hope that the divisions that have marked the campaign can be forgotten and the country joins together to build a positive future in the post-EU Britain.
