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Intrade Was Off by Only Florida

Monday, November 12, 2012 23:41
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garynorth.com / By Gary North / November 12, 2012

I wrote an article on Intrade’s estimates on the morning of November 6. You can read it here.

Let’s look at the Electoral College map. Votes: Obama, 303; Romney 235.

The outcome was Obama, 332; Romney, 206. The 29 votes that Intrade expected Romney to get went to Obama.

So, Intrade was not perfect. But it was wrong only about a state that was so close that it took five days to count the votes. The margin of victory in Florida was 64,000 votes.

This pretty well buries traditional polling. It’s over, folks.

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Thanks to BrotherJohnF



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