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These Charts Better Not Reflect The True State Of The US Economy

Sunday, April 7, 2013 12:26

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zerohedge.com / By Tyler Durden / 04/06/2013 20:16

Lately, when it comes to obtaining an accurate sense of the true state of the US economy, it is as difficult if not more than analyzing the openly-manipulated Chinese data. On one hand, the Fed-juiced market, which has lost its discounting powers, no longer reflects the current or future economic (or corporate) fundamentals, on the other, massive seasonal aberrations, whether purposeful or accidental, have made a mockery of any data series, be it jobs, manufacturing, retail sales, or housing. On the other, the administration – still stuck in the worst economic “recovery” since the Great Depression – is desperate to telegraph an improving economy, most evident in the months leading up to the presidential election, which makes taking any data at face value problematic and naive at best. Yet even the openly-contradicting Chinese data manipulation has its Achilles heel in the form of monthly electricity consumption (and to a lesser extent, production) updates.

So what is the US equivalent of Chinese electricity consumption data? We believe it may be the little-tracked, and thus not nearly as “adjusted” weekly updates from the Energy Information Administration, whose data on barrels of US product supplied of both total petroleum products and just gasoline are as indicative of the true state of the energy-hungry beating heart of the US economy as any other data set, and is likely a far more accurate representation of what is really going on between the lines.

Sadly, if that is indeed the case, then the disconnect between propaganda myth and reality is about as big as can be, since on a blended 52-week average basis, the total product supplied of motor gasoline is back to 2003 levels (black line on chart below). However, where it gets really scary is looking at the total product supplied category, which includes gasoline and all other product such as heating oil, propane, and kerosene. As the chart below shows, the US economy, whose GDP we are led to believe has never been higher, now has the same total consumption of all petroleum products (red line) as it did… back in 1997!