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Is This Why Stocks Are Sliding And The Bond Curve Is Flatter
From the best market inflation-point indicator in the known newsletterverse:
Are stocks over-extended to the upside? Yes, of course. Are they over-extended in terms of earnings? Yes, of course. Are the markets in Asia, and particularly the markets in China, almost preposterously over-extended in the short term? Yes, of course. Should we then be short of stocks because of these over-extensions and over-valuation? No, we shall not be, for the trends are clear and those who’ve sold the markets short using very sophisticated, historically well-precedented, brilliant arguments have been wrong. Eventually they shall be right. Eventually the markets will correct and eventually those corrections will be serious affairs, but as we have always said, “Between eventually and profitability all too often are great chasms of losses.” We shall do our best then to remain as we have been: pleasantly long of equities on balance. There really is no other course of actions we can take.
And…
Long of One Unit of Ten Year Notes/short of One Unit of the Long bond future: Friday, May 22nd we wished to sell into the strength of the bond market and we did so by selling the longest end of the curve and buying that which is shorter. That is we bought September T-note futures at or near to 127 5/32nds and sold September bonds at or near to 153 1/32nd. As we write, they are trading 127 17/32nds and 154 22/32ns respectively so we are up 12/32nd on the T-Notes and we are down 43/32 on the bonds. The first loss is always the better loss and we want out… immediately upon receipt of this commentary.
Source: Dennis Gartman, May 26, 2015
That’s not working out so well…
PS: Gartmans bonus “trade”:
Long of Seven Units of Oil Tanker Equities; Short of the S&P futures: There is no ETF for us to use that is specific to crude oil tankers so we’ve used the available tanker shares listed on the NYSE and we have left the choice entirely to our clients to buy what they wish, intent upon remaining complicit with the SEC’s admonitions against specific stock recommendations. We noted here on Wednesday, May 20th that our favourite tanker stock gapped higher and that the gap has been left open to the upside, so we’d no choice but to add another unit to the trade upon the market’s opening and so we did.
We have no idea what is going on there.
Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2015/05/26/is-this-why-stocks-are-sliding-and-the-bond-curve-is-flatter/
