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davidstockmanscontracorner.com / by Jeffrey P. Snider •
You get the same sense from factory orders that you get from payrolls – the economy is obviously and significantly slowing but there isn’t yet any crispness or urgency to any of it. I think that is the business environment reacting to both revenue reality (falling off) without being ready to commit to more serious negative adjustments just yet. In terms of factory orders, production is contracting but following along with an unbelievably constant , but extreme, inventory level. The fact that production needs to fall off just to maintain that suggests a huge downside if (once?) sentiment finally turns fully away from “transitory.”
Last month’s factory orders contraction was skewed by a huge surge in July 2014 on Boeing orders. With August, we can combine the two months to smooth out that rough fluctuation – it didn’t help. Year-over-year, orders declined 15.1% in July and 6.8% in August; cumulatively, the two-month total change is -11.1% showing that factories are indeed in a serious slump. The 6-month average remains at -7.5%, which is already comparable to the full dot-com recession.
The post Factory Slump Intensifies——Six Months Y/Y Is Now Down 7.5% appeared first on Silver For The People.