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Goldman’s NFP Post-Mortem: A December Rate Hike Is Now A “Close Call”
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 10/02/2015 10:53
In addition to the Fed’s credibility, one other privately-controlled organization that has seen its credibility completely crushed in recent months is the Goldman economic forecasting team (if not the team that “forecasts” Fed monetary policy, simply because Goldman controls the Fed and tells it what to do; as such what Goldman “thinks” the Fed will do is usually ironclad) whose Jan Hatzius “for what it’s worth” forecastabove trend growth for the US economy in 2014.
So, “for what it’s worth”, here is Goldman jobs report post-mortem (in a parallel report Goldman just cut its Q3 GDP forecast from 2.0% to 1.9%), in which the bank admits that the report was a disaster, and that as a result “we now see action at the December meeting as a close call.”
1. The downshift in job growth continued for a second month, with nonfarm payroll employment increasing by just 142k in September (below consensus expectations of a 201k increase). Job gains for the prior two months were also revised down by a total of 59k. Private payroll growth increased by 118k in September, following a gain of 100k in August. The average increase in private payroll growth over the last two months of 109k has fallen well-below the 205k per month pace in the year through July. The slowing in private payroll growth has been fairly broad-based, with notable weakness last month in manufacturing (-9k), mining & logging (-12k) and financial services (flat). Government employment growth remained firm, rising by 24k.
The post Goldman’s NFP Post-Mortem: A December Rate Hike Is Now A “Close Call” appeared first on Silver For The People.
Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2015/10/02/goldmans-nfp-post-mortem-a-december-rate-hike-is-now-a-close-call-2/
