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Jobless Claims Are Irrelevant – Private Sector Data Shows Employment Is Dropping Quickly
investmentresearchdynamics.com / DAVE KRANZLER /
After non-farm payrolls, GDP and CPI and new home sales, the jobless claims report is probably the useless data report released by the Government. It supposedly measures the relative strength of the jobs market by indexing the weekly number of new claims for jobless benefits. However, there’s two obvious and distinct problems with this report.
First and foremost, the data is based on weekly reports filed by each State’s unemployment insurance claims office. The data is often subject to delayed reporting and reporting errors. And, of course the data gets to go through the Governments trusty “seasonal adjustments” meat grinder. That latter fact alone renders the data completely suspect.
But there’s bigger problem. It has to do with the nature of the labor force. Obviously we’ve seen ad nauseum that the labor force participation rate graph is falling go quickly that it appears to trying to dig a hole to China. As the actual number of workers in the labor force declines, the layoff rate declines and therefore the rate of workers (who qualify) file of jobless benefits declines.
Furthermore, by the Government’s own rigged numbers, since 2008 character of the workforce has been shifting from full-time to part-time. Part of the reason for this is that Companies can eliminate the expense of paying unemployment insurance by replacing full-time workers with part-time employees, even if it means hiring a few more bodies. Full-time workers are entitled to health insurance, pension and unemployment insurance benefits. By eliminating the need to pay these entitlements, the cost of paying three part-time workers in place of two full-time workers.
The post Jobless Claims Are Irrelevant – Private Sector Data Shows Employment Is Dropping Quickly appeared first on Silver For The People.
Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2015/10/01/jobless-claims-are-irrelevant-private-sector-data-shows-employment-is-dropping-quickly/
