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Thoughts Before Extended Business Trip

Thursday, October 15, 2015 5:48
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marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / October 15, 2015

I leave today for a business trip to Tokyo, Hong Kong and Beijing over the next three weeks. Updates to the blog will be more sporadic, and with a different rhythm given the time zone. Please bear with me.
Given this is may be particularly helpful to summarize my views:
1.  I remain a dollar bull on a medium and longer-term basis, but recognize that stale longs are bailing, and new momentum shorts are being established.
2.  Since the disappointing US September jobs report, the news stream chopped the greenback;s underlying support.  The pendulum of market sentiment has swung hard against a rate hike not only this year, but is pushing it into Q2 16.  The downshift in job creation has been echoed with the disappointing retail sales data.  The Beige Book also picked up some deterioration.  Nine of 12 districts reported modest or moderate growth, down from 11 previously, and the language seemed more less optimistic.  Two Federal Reserve Governors, Brainard and Tarullo, have come out strongly opposed to a hike this year.  These are more important dissents than regional presidents, all of whom do not vote.   Going forward, the views of the Fed’s leadership will be particularly important.  Dudley speaks today.  He had tipped investors off early that a September rate hike had become “less compelling”.

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The post Thoughts Before Extended Business Trip appeared first on Silver For The People.



Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2015/10/15/thoughts-before-extended-business-trip/

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