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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Friday, December 18, 2015 13:17
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(Before It's News)

B4INREMOTE-aHR0cDovLzQuYnAuYmxvZ3Nwb3QuY29tLy1XeXR4WmJVM0t2OC9WblFRNVZUN2ZISS9BQUFBQUFBQVN5dy8xVFBRSnZSUlprOC9zNDAwL2F0bGFzLmpwZw==marctomarket.com / Dr. Win Thin / December 18, 2015

1) Argentina eliminated capital controls and allowed the peso to float
2) Argentina also eliminated export taxes on agricultural goods that include beef, wheat, and corn
3) Fitch joined S&P in cutting Brazil to sub-investment grade BB+ with a negative outlook
4) Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that impeachment proceedings can move forward
5) Banco de Mexico hiked rates for the first time since 2008
6) Under strong pressure from the financial markets, South African President Zuma reinstated former Finance Minister Gordhan
7) The new Polish government increased state spending its 2016 budget revision
8) Vietnam’s central bank cut the USD deposit rate cap to 0% in order to discourage dollar hoarding

In the EM equity space, Poland (+5.6%), Colombia (+5.6%), and China (+4.4%) have outperformed over the last week, while Brazil (-2.1%), Qatar (-0.8%), and Russia (+0.1%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 2.3% over the past week while MSCI DM rose 0.3%.

In the EM local currency bond space, the South Africa (10-year yield -101 bp), Mexico (-23 bp), and Poland (-20 bp) have outperformed over the last week, while Ukraine (10-year yield +31 bp), Brazil (+27 bp), and Colombia (+12 bp) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, the 10-year UST yield rose 8 bp over the past week.

In the EM FX space, ZAR (+5.9% vs. USD), TRY (+2.5% vs. USD), and MXN (+2.4% vs. USD) have outperformed over the last week, while ARS (-27.2% vs. USD), ILS (-1.2% vs. USD), and BRL (-0.7% vs. USD) have underperformed.



Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2015/12/18/emerging-markets-what-has-changed-31/

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