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After Blowing Up Its Clients With Its “Top 6 Trades For 2016”, Goldman Has A New Trade Recommendation
Be prepared for the next great transfer of wealth. Buy physical silver and storable food.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/21/2016 – 17:48
After refusing to even consider the possibility of a recession in the US for over a year, the first cracks in Goldman’s armor are starting to appear. Over the weekend chief equity strategist David Kostin said that while the probability of a recession according to GS economists remains low, saying that “their model suggests the US has an 18% probability of recession during the next year and 24% likelihood during the next two years”, Goldman’s clients and investors “continue to inquire about the impact a contraction would have on the US equity market.”
Displeased with this inquiry into the worst case scenario, one which nobody at Goldman predicted as recently as a few months ago, Kostin is forced to present Goldman’s sensitivity “of our existing earnings and valuation forecasts to a US recession scenario.” Here is Goldman’s take of what may be the worst case scenario for stocks in a recession:
We estimate the S&P 500 index will generate $117 in EPS in 2016, a rise of 11% from last year, although EPS growth excluding the Energy sector will equal just 5%. Our baseline earnings forecast assumes the US economy expands by an average of 2.0% in 2016while world ex-US growth averages 3.6%. We forecast sales, margins, and earnings for each sector of the S&P 500 based on assumptions for US GDP growth, global GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, crude oil, and the US Dollar.
The post After Blowing Up Its Clients With Its “Top 6 Trades For 2016”, Goldman Has A New Trade Recommendation appeared first on Silver For The People.
Thanks to BrotherJohnF
Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2016/02/21/after-blowing-up-its-clients-with-its-top-6-trades-for-2016-goldman-has-a-new-trade-recommendation/
