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Housing Starts, Permits Drop For Second Month As Homebuilding Activity Remains Far Below Prior Peak
Today’s batch of housing data, namely the January update of housing starts and permits, which as a reminder has a quite substantial “confidence interval” of between 10.5% and 28.3%, was largely uneventful.
Total housing starts of 1099K was the second consecutive drop from last month’s downward revised 1,143K, and a miss to the 1,173K expected. This was due to a drop in both 1-unit structures, which declined from 761K to 731K in all regions led by the Midwest, as well as a decline in multi-family, or rental, units which dropped from 363K to 354K. Can’t blame the weather this time.
The silver lining to the Starts miss was the small Permits print, which at 1,202K beat expectations of 1,200K, but like with starts was the second consecutive drop from the substantially downward revised January number of 1.204MM (down from 1.232MM) and November’s 1.282MM. And while rental unit permits rose by a modest 1.1% to 442K, the single-family permits declined by 1.6% to 720K, below the
What goes without saying is that both starts and permits remain well below their 2007 highs, and what is more troubling is that as the Y/Y change chart shown below demonstrates, the growth rate is rapidly approaching the X-axis if not sliding below it.
Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2016/02/17/housing-starts-permits-drop-for-second-month-as-homebuilding-activity-remains-far-below-prior-peak/
